We have undertaken an analysis of 298 appeal decisions granted since January 2014 and comprising 10 residential units or more. The analysis shows an almost 50-50 split between those approved (151) and those dismissed (147). In the 39 appeals where a post-NPPF local plan was in place, the proportion of appeals that were allowed drops to 38%. Of the 151 appeals that have been granted in total, 54% cited lack of a five year land supply as a material factor leading to the success of the appeal.

Recent appeal decisions also demonstrate that the housing supply evidence provided by LPAs often does not stand up to scrutiny. For example, authorities have lost appeals where they have sought to bolster the land supply analysis with large sites. In such circumstances, it has been assessed by the Inspector that not all of the new homes on such strategic sites are deliverable within the five year time frame.

The chart indicates that directly after the introduction of the NPPF some large schemes that were already in the appeal process were approved. After this initial phase, there was a significant reduction in the size of schemes (as measured by the number of dwellings proposed) at appeal.

click image below to enlarge

^{Source: Savills Research}

More recently, there has been a steady and gradual increase, with the maximum scheme size submitted for appeal growing from 275 units in 2013 Q1 to 1100 in Q4 2014. This is perhaps indicative of both a strengthening housing market and also increasing confidence in the chances of success for larger projects at appeal. In total 20,000 units were given approval through the appeal process in 2014.