Housing shortfalls are becoming ingrained in the planning system. Action is required.
In the raft of pledges that marked the election manifesto launches, detail on planning has been conspicuous by its absence. While housing (and more precisely home ownership) may have featured highly on the election agenda, little has been said about the future of the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) by vote-seeking politicians.
So what is likely to happen to planning after polling day? The House of Commons Communities and Local Government Committee report on the operation of the NPPF offers some clues. The number of planning consents for residential development has risen considerably in the three years since the introduction of the NPPF.
Therefore, despite some concerns over weaknesses in the system, the cross-party group concludes that the NPPF needs “adjustment” rather than a “complete overhaul”.
The MPs also state that they want more data. We are happy to oblige.
In this report, we have provided a number of key figures, the most striking of which is that we are heading for a planning shortfall of 180,000 homes over the next parliament if current trends continue.
There are a number of reasons for this weakness.
"25% have neither an adopted plan nor an up-to-date SHMA"
Susan Emmett, Savills Research
While the NPPF is intended to be a plan-led system, only 24% of local planning authorities (LPAs) outside London and National Parks have local plans adopted post NPPF. A greater proportion, 51%, have no adopted plan but are working with recently published strategic housing market assessments (SHMAs). That 25% have neither an adopted plan nor up-to-date SHMAs ought to be cause for alarm.
However, the biggest concern is that housing targets adopted by local planning authorities to date represent only 80% of the level indicated by the appropriate SHMA.
The disparity is even wider where the housing requirement is greatest. The target in the London Plan is 42,000 new homes a year despite a needs assessment of between 49,000 and 62,000.
The allocation of sufficient sites for development also needs addressing even where plans have been adopted. Our research shows that 31% of English local authorities (90 of the 293 excluding London and the National Parks) have acknowledged that they do not have a five year supply of housing land as required by the NPPF.
Furthermore, the lack of definitive methodology for calculating five year land supply, leaves room for interpretation and a lack of certainty as to whether enough land is being allocated to housing. While 175 local authorities state they do have a five year land supply, our own calculations (see Our Calculations) suggest 43% of these do not and 26% are borderline cases.
As a result of these issues, housing shortfalls are at risk of becoming embedded in the planning system, storing up problems for future.
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