Inflation-beating house price growth will continue to be a feature of the coming decade, though at a lower rate than seen over the past ten years, according to new analysis from Savills Research.

The property consultancy forecasts that demand will be sustained by stock shortages, but price growth will be constrained by more limited access to mortgage finance. It forecasts 40% inflation-adjusted growth in the mainstream market over the next ten years, much more in line with the long term average. This follows inflation-adjusted changes of +71% in the Noughties, a fall of -14% in the 1990s, and +43% and +49% growth in the 1980s and 1970s respectively.

"We expect to see an ongoing pattern of much more sober lending in the next decade, a factor that will clearly set the next ten years apart from the pre-credit crunch Noughties which saw very high inflation-adjusted growth in comparison to the historic norm", says Lucian Cook, Director of Savills Research. "The legacy of the Noughties will be a residential market split - possibly irrevocably - between the equity haves and have nots.

"A regionalised market recovery is now inevitable with a ripple effect rolling out from the prime markets of London and the South East. Our forecast anticipates sustained house price growth in the equity rich, prime hotspots from 2011 onwards, with a significant lag in areas blighted by low levels of equity, high unemployment levels and the prospect of very slow economic recovery."

Future growth will reverse the pattern seen in the Noughties

The company also forecasts a very different geographical pattern of growth compared to the Noughties and a reversal of fortune in some areas that have outperformed the average over the past ten years (see map below). Most notably, the areas showing the highest levels of growth did not include the majority of Central and South-East England, in part because they had seen the strongest uplift in the early part of the 1997-2007 growth period.

Says Cook, "In particular, we forecast that the relative underperformance of the prime sector over the last decade - London and the South East in particular - will underpin its early recovery in the next housing cycle."

10 year house price growth - The reverse of common perceptions?

Broadly, in the strongest areas for house price growth last decade were in the far South-West of England, West Wales, North Norfolk, Northern England, with London and the South-East only registering with the lower value east of City London boroughs such as Newham, Barking and Dagenham.

The list of the top ten local authorities includes areas that began the decade relatively undervalued those impacted by second home buyer activity. The position of Pembrokeshire at the top of this list reflects this trend. Outside of the top ten the effect of the expanding commuter zone has also played its part.

Says Cook: "A decade of relative sobriety in mortgage lending suggests that the regions where equity and cash are most concentrated will see the earliest and most sustainable price growth over the next decade. Without doubt, this points to many of the higher value prime areas which have recorded the lowest percentage growth over the Noughties."