Contents

• Global overview
• Capital values
• Rents
• Outlook

The first half of 2026 has highlighted the enduring resilience of the world's prime residential markets. While geopolitical uncertainty, evolving economic conditions and cautious buyer sentiment have moderated the pace of growth, prime housing has continued to demonstrate its ability to preserve value and attract capital in an increasingly complex global environment.

Across the 30 cities tracked by the Savills World Cities Prime Residential Index, capital values rose by 0.6% and rents by 1.1% during the six months to June 2026. Beneath these headline figures lies a diverse picture of local market performance, shaped increasingly by city-specific factors including supply constraints, wealth creation, demographic trends and international demand.

As global growth becomes less synchronised, understanding these local dynamics has never been more important. This report examines the cities leading performance today and the drivers expected to shape prime residential markets through the remainder of 2026.

Articles found in the report

Global Overview

Prime residential markets continued to perform steadily, demonstrating resilience through a period of volatility.

The H1 2026 edition of the Savills World Cities Prime Residential Index highlights a period of moderation across global prime residential markets. Against a backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty and shifting economic conditions, average prime residential capital values rose by 0.6% in the six months to June 2026. While growth was more subdued than in recent years, market performance remained positive overall and broadly in line with previous periods of softer activity, such as the slowdown between 2018 and 2020. Prime rental growth reached 1.1% in H1 2026, up from 0.5% recorded in H2 2025. Importantly, most cities tracked by the index had capital value growth, with 60% posting positive performance over the period. This underlines the enduring resilience of prime residential markets, where constrained supply and significant household wealth have continued to support pricing despite a more challenging global environment.

In a historical context, current performance sits well below long-term averages. Before the Global Financial Crisis, prime residential markets commonly achieved 5% to 7% half-yearly capital value growth. This moderated to around 2% to 4.5% throughout much of the 2010s before rebounding following the pandemic. Since 2022, however, higher borrowing costs, affordability constraints, geopolitical uncertainty and increasing taxation and regulation of high net worth buyers have weighed on market performance.

Beneath the subdued global average, city-level performance is varied. Tokyo led capital value growth, while Cape Town and Lisbon were among the strongest rental markets. Conversely, Dubai, Berlin and Bangkok recorded declines in both capital values and rents.

Prime residential yields were broadly stable across the index, reflecting a largely balanced relationship between capital value and rental growth. Amsterdam and Berlin, among others, recorded no yield movement, while Lisbon and Los Angeles saw yields compress as capital values outpaced rental growth. Conversely, Hong Kong and Cape Town experienced yield expansion as rental growth outpaced capital value growth.

Capital value and rent overview

Capital values

Average capital values across the index rose 0.6% in H1 2026. While political and economic uncertainty tempered buyer confidence, compounded by heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, performance was far from uniform. Nearly two-thirds (60%) of cities recorded stable or positive capital value growth, underlining the resilience of prime residential markets where supply constraints, economic expansion and continued wealth creation support demand.

Constrained supply was a defining theme in several of the index's strongest markets. Especially prevalent in Tokyo, which was the index's strongest-performing market, with capital values rising 7.0% in the six months to June 2026 and 20.4% over the year to June 2026. Cape Town delivered 4.7% capital value growth as limited prime stock continued to outpace demand, while Seoul recorded 4.1% growth.

Southern European cities continued to outperform, with Lisbon, Madrid, Barcelona, Athens and Rome all recording positive capital value growth. Europe's major business centres, including Geneva, Milan, Amsterdam and Paris, also remained in positive territory, with Lisbon and Geneva both seeing growth above 3.0%.

By contrast, Chinese residential markets continued to face headwinds. Four of the five Chinese cities tracked recorded capital value declines in H1 2026.

Rents

Rental markets continue to outperform

Prime rental markets remained resilient in H1 2026 as economic and geopolitical uncertainty encouraged many to prioritise flexibility over ownership. Across the 30 cities tracked, average prime rents rose 1.1%, extending a trend of rental growth outpacing capital values since mid-2022. Elevated interest rates, affordability constraints and deferred purchasing decisions have all sustained demand for prime rental accommodation.

Outlook

The prime residential forecast is expected to be broadly stable in the second half of 2026, with prime residential capital values expected to rise by 0.5% across the 30 cities tracked. Growth is anticipated in 16 markets, with 10 expected to remain flat and only four projected to decline.

Supply-constrained and lifestyle-led markets are set to lead performance. Cape Town is forecast to lead performance, with capital values expected to rise by 4% to 5.9%. Singapore, Seoul, Kuala Lumpur, Lisbon, Madrid and Barcelona are forecast to record growth of 2% to 3.9%. This grouping reinforces the themes of the first half of the year: constrained prime supply amplified in Asia Pacific and sustained international demand across Southern Europe.

Paris, Amsterdam, Rome, Milan, Athens and Mumbai are forecast to see modest growth of between 0% and 1.9%. North America's major cities are expected to record broadly flat capital value growth.

Only a small number of markets are forecast to decline. London and San Francisco are expected to record modest falls of up to -1.9%, while Sydney is projected to decline by -2% to -3.9%. Dubai remains the clear outlier, with values forecast to fall by around -10% as oversupply and geopolitical uncertainty continue to weigh on the market.

As 2026 progresses, market performance will increasingly be shaped by local factors, with supply constraints, expanding technology sectors and international demand supporting growth, while geopolitical disruption continues to create uneven outcomes between World Cities.

While the era of synchronised global growth appears to be in the past for now, the outlook for prime residential markets remains resilient. Cities able to combine constrained supply, strong household wealth creation and sustained international demand are likely to outperform, while those with elevated supply or heightened uncertainty may continue to lag. In this environment, selecting the right city will become increasingly important, with relative value, lifestyle appeal and long-term economic fundamentals set to remain the defining drivers of prime residential performance through the remainder of 2026.

_{Read the articles within Savills Prime Residential Index: World Cities below.}