A good food system

In June 2024, we published our Spotlight: Food and the Environment, which focused on the drivers of UK food production, increasing productivity and regenerative farming. In this publication, we focus on the food system from a production perspective, on supply chain collaboration, and on the changes required for tomorrow’s table.

The UK food system is at a crossroads, driven by a number of factors affecting production, supply chain interaction and consumer demand. While there is no agreement on whether the food system is “broken”, it is clear that it requires a review to ensure it is fit for purpose and resilient from farm to fork.

UK food production

Self-sufficiency has become the most frequently discussed metric when assessing the UK food system. Today, from the 70% of land used to produce food (Figure 1), the UK is 65% self-sufficient in all foods – down from 80% in the 1980s. During the Second World War, our 30% self-sufficiency was used against us in enemy strategies, prompting the UK Government to forge ahead with producing more food. Food production was modernised, mechanised and incentivised, with the move from horses to tractors, the introduction of fertiliser and the Common Agricultural Policy, resulting in improved self-sufficiency. Its decline since has been due to the choice to invest in other industries, increase income, and use the revenue to import food.

The UK Food Security – Outlook to 2050 report (2025) highlights the potential loss of up to 23% of currently farmed land by 2050 due to competing land use demands, including housing, solar infrastructure, tree planting, and carbon offsetting. The report states that, unless mitigated, these trends could lead to a 32% fall in domestic food production, further increasing reliance on imports.

The UK is a net importer of nearly all food and agriculture categories, and imports by value are nearly two and a half times the value of exports. Only beverages break that trend, with whisky almost entirely responsible for the exports, although even they have decreased in recent months. This trend could change following any removal of tariffs and restrictions by President Trump on whisky imports.

According to HMRC (2026), dairy and red meat exports increased by 16.6% and 12% respectively in 2025 as overseas demand for British produce continued to climb, highlighting the growing role of global markets in supporting UK produce and placing significant importance on any future trade deals the UK agrees.

Hamish Logan, Savills Food and Farming Consultant, reports that Scottish malting barley remains a cornerstone of the UK cereals sector, underpinning the global reputation of Scotch whisky while offering one of the clearest examples of a value-led, provenance-driven supply chain. Around 900,000–925,000 tonnes of malting barley are used annually in the Scotch whisky supply chain, supplying approximately 90% of the sector's barley requirement. The long-term grower, maltster and distiller relationship is an example of the supply chain working well, mainly due to increased focus on quality and consistency.

Future food trends

Jack Bobo (UCLA Rothman Family Institute for Food Studies) states that while global population growth is expected to reach 9.5 billion by 2050, the increase is entirely due to people living longer, not due to higher fertility rates. This will cause population growth to slow and plateau for many countries from 2100. He suggests that the world will not need more food in the future, but the food production system will need to ensure that what we produce is done so within resilient systems to survive external forces such as global shocks – “we’re moving from more to better food”.

Food production system drivers

Profit, climate change and policy are three areas influencing the future of food production systems and emerging food trends.

Profit

Profitable production systems are essential for sustainability, reinvestment and growth. Defra commissioned the Farming Profitability Review, led by Baroness Minette Batters (December 2025), which resulted in 57 recommendations to the government. Whilst England-focused, they could apply to the UK.

The recommendations will feed into the promised national food strategy and farming roadmap. The tone for the future is that we cannot wait for the government, nor can we expect the government to financially incentivise food production as it has in the past. This raises an important question: where should farming businesses look for future financial returns? (Figure 2)

Case study: Richard Bramley farms 230 hectares (568 acres) of cereals, sugar beet and potatoes in Yorkshire

Over the last 30 years, Richard feels that, due to external challenges and pressures, farming businesses have had to become more resilient to survive. Richard’s objective is to produce food while protecting and enhancing the environment (with a specific focus on soil health) while delivering a sustainable profit. The three drivers of business profitability for Richard are:

Collaboration within the supply chain is important, and Richard believes this is increasing. He is working with PepsiCo, a potato purchaser, on trials for future crop resilience and with Yorkshire Water on land use, which positively impacts water quality. Both are offering financially incentivised support, which aligns with the food production system. Richard believes a coordinated long-term plan is lacking for the UK food production system, and more collaboration with the supply chain is needed to move businesses from just surviving to thriving.

Climate change

According to the Institute of Grocery Distribution’s 2026 Climate Risk Assessment, climate change could increase the cost of the UK food system by up to £2.6 billion by 2050. Our food production systems must adapt to a changing climate. The case study later in this report explores the impact of climate change on production systems, how farmers are responding, and how these changes are shaping wider food systems.

Policy

England, Scotland and Wales have each set out their food strategies (Figure 3). All have a shared ambition to improve diets and better integrate food production with environmental protection and recovery. Scotland stands apart and ahead of the others in placing food production within a statutory policy framework through the Good Food Nation (Scotland) Act, signalling clear government intent and long-term commitment to domestic food production alongside wider social and environmental outcomes.

In contrast, there is no regulatory requirement underpinning food strategies in Wales or England, nor any explicit target for food production at a UK level. As a result, while the willingness to support food systems is evident across all three nations, it remains to be seen whether non-statutory approaches will deliver the same level of focus, accountability and tangible impact as Scotland. Local and regional initiatives are emerging, such as Agri-Food Growth Plans which are being developed in the South West and food partnerships on the Isle of Wight.

_{Read the articles within Spotlight: Food Beyond Today below.}