Research article

UK Golden Triangle

Overview of the demand and supply dynamics


The knowledge and innovation ecosystem across the Golden Triangle was boosted by the recent news of the UK government’s commitment to the Oxford-Cambridge Growth Corridor, which is estimated to be worth £78 billion to the UK economy by 2035. This announcement has helped improve sentiment across the region after a mixed picture of leasing activity in Q1 2025. Take-up recorded at the end of the first quarter was 321,000 sq ft, which was 26% below Q1 2024. Cambridge, however, recorded the highest take-up level for the first quarter in the last five years, with 204,000 sq ft transacted. This can be attributed to greater corporate activity, demonstrating the maturity of science occupiers in the city. The largest transaction being Arm pre-letting 95,000 sq ft at Optic, Peterhouse Technology Park. The wider macroeconomic uncertainty impacted the VC funding market and subsequently resulted in occupiers delaying relocation decisions. The region has predominantly been reliant on deriving demand from smaller VC-backed startups which is reflected in the composition of deals recorded, with 78% of transactions across both offices and laboratory specifications being below 10,000 sq ft in the last five years.

VC investment activity into the science sector is unlikely to return to the record levels experienced in 2021 and 2022 in the short-to-medium term, amidst ongoing economic headwinds and competition from other sectors. There is, however, growing evidence of smaller occupiers being able to access new investment and reactivate space requirements. Savills is currently tracking 1.1 million sq ft of demand from both smaller and large occupiers across the region. Corporate expansion and attracting large inward movers whose requirements are not as intrinsically linked to the VC markets will be critical to sustaining the expansion of the knowledge and innovation cluster based in the Golden Triangle.

Historically, the lack of large available stock has hindered the ability of the region to accommodate the growth of large occupiers

Simon Preece, Associate Director, Commercial Research

The region’s ability to attract international new entrants can be a source of improving demand levels. Oxford and Cambridge are both well placed to attract this type of demand with the existing talent pool and discounted labour costs. This trend is notable for the Artificial Intelligence (AI) sector. According to Glassdoor, the average AI engineer salary in Oxford and Cambridge is 47% and 44% below the average US salary, which will appeal to US occupiers seeking a new site in the UK. The AI sector in the UK is currently worth $92 billion and is projected to reach $1 trillion by 2035, making it the second highest-value AI nation, only behind the USA. The UK’s Technology Secretary, Peter Kyle, spoke at Nvidia’s annual conference to highlight the potential for further collaboration between the UK and US AI industries. The formation of dedicated AI growth zones within the UK that have access to dedicated infrastructure and streamlined regulations are designed to attract significant AI investment. Culham Science Centre, Oxford, has been announced as the first AI growth zone, which will benefit the wider Golden Triangle region. The ongoing expansion of the AI sector, both domestically and internationally, will present significant inward investment opportunities from the sector into the Golden Triangle region, which can support take-up volumes going forward.

Historically, the lack of large available stock has hindered the ability of the region to accommodate the growth of large occupiers. Developers are responding to the need and are being rewarded for undertaking speculative developments. GIC and Magdalen College's speculatively developed Iversen Building, located at Oxford Science Park, was fully let within 12 months. Novo Nordisk leased 60,000 sq ft in Q4 2024, and the remaining 26,000 sq ft has been let to Ellison Institute of Technology in Q1 2025. This trend has also been evident in Cambridge, with Arm pre-letting the entirety of British Land’s Optic, Peterhouse Technology Park during construction, which comprises 95,000 sq ft. The semiconductor design company occupies all of the existing space at the scheme, totalling 330,000 sq ft. The city centre market has also experienced corporate demand: Brookgate’s 10 Station Road speculative development, which comprises 60,000 sq ft and achieved practical completion in Q4 2024, was under offer to a single occupier. This transaction has since fallen through, but is indicative of the corporate demand present in the market.

London’s science market is nascent with a lack of existing corporate occupiers from the sector based in the capital. LifeArc is, however, under offer to lease 70,000 sq ft, and Lilly is set to open a new base in London, with 35,000 sq ft under offer. The trend of ’big pharma’ seeking to expand or establish a presence in the capital has been gathering momentum in recent years. GSK, Ipsen and MSD have all opened new sites in the market.

The evolution of the demand pool across the Golden Triangle to include existing corporate expansion and large inward movers will be needed to stimulate the delivery of the planned development pipeline across the region, which will be required to accommodate this new type of demand.


 

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