Source: Savills Research
Space going under-offer begins to rise following a quiet previous three months
Supply and demand snapshot
■ Take-up for September was 541,786 sq ft, bringing the year-to-date City total to 4m sq ft, which is 32% down on this point last year but just 9% down on the 10-year average for take-up to the end of Q3. 80% of all transactions to date have been of a Grade A standard.
■ August's activity has brought the 12-month rolling take-up figure to 5.6m sq ft, 15% up on the long-term average.
TABLE 1Key September stats
■ The largest deal of the month was the acquisition of the LG - 2 floors (61,951 sq ft) at Aldwych House, WC2. WeWork took the space on a new lease at £62.50/sq ft (rising to £67.50/ sq ft after the fifth year) on a 10-year lease with 18 months rent free.
■ Another notable deal was the first letting at South Bank Central, SE1 in the Vivo building. DNV GL acquired part 4th and 5th floors totalling 32,366 sq ft. This is the first letting at this new development, and it was at £60.50/ sq ft on a 12-year lease with an eighth year break and 15 months rent free.
GRAPH 1City take-up by quarter
Source: Savills Research
■ So far this year, Insurance & Financial services have accounted for the greatest amount of take-up at 20%. They are followed by Tech & Media (13%), Professional services (10%), and Retail & Leisure and the Banking sector both on 9%.
■ Total City supply stood at 6.8m sq ft, equating to a vacancy rate of 5.5%, up on this point last year by 1.1%.
■ Total space under-offer is currently at 1.1m sq ft, which is down on the long-term average by 15%. However, we saw 328,078 sq ft go under-offer in September alone, substantially up on the average amount for the previous three months of 70,228 sq ft.
■ The average prime rent for Q3 equated to £81.00/sq ft, which is the highest quarterely average prime rent ever in the City. However, this has been influenced by the £107.00/sq ft Kames Capital deal at The Leadenhall Building, EC3.
GRAPH 2Number of deals by rent bracket
Source: Savills Research
■ The City average grade A rent for Q3 was £61.29/sq ft, which is also the highest ever.
■ At the end of Q3, 48% of the deals done have been in the £60+ per sq ft rent bracket, significantly up on last year (24%), and the previous market peak in 2007 (6%).
■ The average amount of months given rent free on a 10-year lease has risen from 17 months last quarter to 19 months for Q3.
■ We forecast take-up to reach 5 - 5.5m sq ft by the end of the year, and rents to remain stable at their current levels along with the vacancy rate.
Analysis close up
TABLE 2Monthly take-up
TABLE 3Year-to-date take-up
TABLE 4Rents
TABLE 5Supply
TABLE 6Development pipeline
TABLE 7Demand & under offers
Completions due in the next six months are included in the supply figures
*Average prime rents for preceding three months
** Average rent free on leases of 10 years with no breaks for preceding three months
N.B We have amended our historic stock figure, resulting in a slight change of our historic vacancy rates (Aug 2015)
TABLE 8Significant September transactions
TABLE 9Significant supply
MAP 1Savills City Office Market Area (updated at the end of each quarter)
Source: Savills Research