Publication

West End Investment Watch October 2016

Volumes hold steady on back of a strong September

■ September saw volumes of £869m over 13 transactions, the second largest monthly figure of the year. This brings annual turnover to the end of Q3 to £5.44bn over 114 transactions; down 11% year on the previous year (see Graph 1). Putting this into context, current turnover levels remain the fourth highest on record, only 3% down on 2014 which was the West Ends record year.

■ Considering how sentiment and turnover broadly correlate the market would appear to be in rude health. A bumper final quarter of that recorded in 2014 at over £3.38bn is unlikely but there are a wealth of opportunities over £100m being marketed on a selective basis and if these transact we will almost certainly be surprised on the upside. We know of over 10 deals in excess of this hurdle that owners are willing to part with and could well match up with strong currency motivated overseas demand.

■ In transactional terms, in September Savills represented Oxford Properties & Richemont on the acquisition of 50 New Bond Street. The freehold asset comprises two flagship retail units, let to Mulberry and Pinet and five upper floors of Grade A office accommodation. The property was acquired for £198m reflecting a 2.89% net initial yield and a capital value of £4,060 per sq ft. The property had been under offer prereferendum at a level approximately 5% higher but more significantly the buyer saved approximately €40m.

Graph 1

GRAPH 1Turnover to end of Q3

Source: Savills Research

■ TH Real Estate has sold the long leasehold interest in 440 Strand. The property occupies a substantial 1.3 acre site and comprises offices and retail accommodation totalling 180,463 sq ft. 75% of the gross rental income is attributed to Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) for a further 20 years. The long leasehold was acquired by RBS who triggered their first right of refusal, the deal having been agreed with Capco. The property traded for £198m which reflects a net initial yield of 4.03% and a capital value of £1,097 per sq ft.

■ A private Far Eastern investor has acquired the freehold interest in Townsend House, Greycoat Place in Victoria. The office property is single let to London Underground Limited until January 2018 at an average passing rent of £33 per sq ft. The asset was offered with the opportunity of either a potential regear with the existing tenant or the implementation of various asset management initiatives on expiry. The building generated a huge amount of interest with approximately 50 inspections and over 10 offers received before selling for £18.5m reflecting a net initial yield of 3.04% and a capital value of £1,019 per sq ft, almost 25% in excess of quote. This sale is a positive indication that there is still appetite for shorter term income opportunities and certainly for smaller lot sizes that attract private investors.

■ The IPD average equivalent and initial yields have both moved out 19 and 17 basis points, respectively since June (see Graph 2).

■ The Savills West End team continues to be highly active in transacting business having advised on over £1.4bn of deals year to date and boasting a market share of 33% in September deals alone. With nine sales currently in the market, Q4 promises to be a busy spell for the team.

Graph 2

GRAPH 2Yields

Source: Savills Research, IPD

Table 1

TABLE 1Key Deals in September 2016