Publication

Market in Minutes: UK Commercial – October 2016

The impacts of Brexit still being assessed

Rising yields

■ During July, most of the 13 property sectors in Table 1 saw yields increase from where they were when previously published. The remaining few had an upward trend arrow. The impact of Brexit saw the average yield across all sectors rise to 4.86% in July, a similar level to June 2014, but 39 basis points above the average in February 2016. September saw yields move lower for two sectors as the negative sentiment, in reaction to Brexit, has receded.

Table 1

TABLE 1Prime yields

Source: Savills Research

■ Clear signs have emerged from buyers that long income and annuity type investments with fixed uplifts are maintaining their value. Overall, Brexit has catalysed the sales of assets and increased liquidity in the market.

■ Following the EU Referendum decision, the equity markets fell, as would be expected with a major economy entering a period of uncertainty. The stock market indices have already shown recovery. The impact on consumer and business confidence is the more important driver and this will be lower in the short-term.

■ As the effects unwind and the property markets begin to feel the inevitable impacts, news flow was dominated by the restrictions placed on redemptions from the open-ended retail funds. This created some forced selling of assets. Also, construction sentiment is at a seven-year low and finance directors and consumer confidence have both taken a severe knock, but also shown recovery.

■ According to data from The Investment Association, net retail sales for property funds saw minus £1.5bn in June 2016 followed by minus £792m in July, the latest figures available (see Graph 1). In comparison, for May, equity funds net sales were minus £2.2bn. There has been a flight to fixed income (+£2.7bn) during the five months from March to July.

■ Savills have produced various Brexit Briefings, which you can read here.

Graph 1

GRAPH 1Net retail fund sales for property sector was already responding to slowing capital value growth

Source: Savills Research, MSCI

Forecast revision

■ The key question, for the UK property market, has been how the current level of uncertainty impacts on UK property returns and for how long.

■ There has been a mixed response from buyers and sellers in the market. The initial turmoil created a perception of deep discounting, but this was not supported two weeks later. There will be a reduction in values, but the positive developments in political leadership and clarity required on the process of leaving the EU will assist with stability. RealFor have updated their forecasts to reflect Brexit.

■ As shown in Graph 2, the forecasts from RealFor, an industry-wide provider of forecasts to agents and funds, shows a lower level of returns. However, the latest IPF consensus forecasts are more positive.

■ The chart presents the annual average total returns for the UK 'all property' sector and the three main property sectors. These forecasts show a larger impact on the UK office sector, with annual average returns moving below 2% per annum. Both the retail and industrial sectors are showing a slower level of total returns, but the reduction is not as significant as for the office sector.

Graph 2

GRAPH 2July interim forecasts unsurprisingly lower

Source: RealFor, Investment Property Forum

What Workers Want

■ Savills and the British Council for Offices (BCO) published a report reviewing the requirements and preferences of offices employees across the UK. The survey results provide an indication for occupiers, developers and owners of the what, ultimately, makes an office employee happier and more productive. In total, Savills has analysed 64,500 data points from the survey, which was compiled by YouGov. A report of the findings is available from Savills or the BCO website.

■ The survey was undertaken this year, asking 1,132 office workers and included a review of the importance and satisfaction of 30 variables. We asked the workers how important each is to them. This shows that there are aspects of the office, in terms of location and fit-out that requires particular attention to attain and retain the appropriate employees. Importantly, most of the variables can be dealt with by the occupier.

■ The top factors, in terms of importance, are presented in Graph 3. The length of commute and cleanliness of the office are the top two variables. The corresponding satisfaction of each variable was also collected and is also shown in the graph and shows another dimension to the data. For example, despite 86% rating the commute time as a highly important factor, the level of those having a high level of satisfaction is only 60%. This graph can assist companies in focusing their efforts to ensure they have a happy and productive workforce.

■ The commute time was a significant issue for respondents of the survey and this highlights the location aspect of offices and how important it is to get it right. However, we did find that 10% of UK workers would commute an additional hour per day to work in their ideal office.

Graph 3

GRAPH 3Most important factors and office workers' satisfaction

Source: Savills Research, BCO, YouGov