Publication

City Office Market Watch – September 2016

Take-up beginning to slow, yet rents continue to rise

Supply and demand snapshot

■ Take-up for August was 199,193 sq ft, bringing the year-to-date City total to 3.4m sq ft, which is 34% down on this point last year but 4% up on the long term average for take-up to the end of August. Furthermore, 83% of all transactions to date have been of a Grade A standard.

■ August's activity has brought the 12-month rolling take-up figure to 5.7m sq ft, which is still 15% up on the long-term average.

Table 1

TABLE 1Key August stats

Source: Savills Research

■ The largest deal of the month was the acquisition of the ground and 1st floors (31,470 sq ft) at The Whitechapel Building, E1. Unruly Media took the space relocating from Princelet Street, E1 on a new lease at £45.00/sq ft on a 10 year lease. Incentives and break terms have been kept confidential. In addition, Reddie & Grose acquired the 4th floor (26,662 sq ft), while The Shipowners Club took part of the 2nd (13,000 sq ft), also on 10 year leases with rents in the late £40's/sq ft.

■ So far this year, Insurance & Financial services have accounted for the greatest amount of take-up at 23%. They are followed by Tech & Media (12%), Banking (10%), and Retail & Leisure (10%). Professional services have accounted for 10% of take-up also so far this year. Serviced office providers have only accounted for 4% of take-up so far this year, significantly down on their 13% share last year.

Graph 1

GRAPH 112-month rolling take-up

Source: Savills Research - accurate to end of August

■ Total City supply stood at 6.5m sq ft, equating to a vacancy rate of 5.2%, up on this point last year by 0.7%. Over 500,000 sq ft of new space is scheduled to achieve PC in Q1 next year, and will be added to supply next month, resulting in the vacancy rate beginning to slowly rise, especially if take-up remains slow.

■ Total space under-offer is currently at 1m sq ft, with only circa 35,000 sq ft going under-offer in August, resulting in it being down on the long-term average by 22%. However, over 240,000 sq ft has gone under-offer so far in September, which is encouraging for Q4 take-up.

■ Rents have continued to rise throughout this year despite the drop in take-up. For instance, City Core average Grade A has risen by 5.8% on this point last year, increasing from £58.76 to £62.18/sq ft, while the northern and eastern fringes have risen by 4.6% over the same time period, increasing from £54.08 to £56.58/sq ft.

Graph 2

GRAPH 2City avg Grade A rent & vacancy rate

Source: Savills Research - accurate to end of August

■ In direct contrast to take-up, we have seen the amount of requirements for the City or central London reach the highest total since August 2008. Standing currently at 10.4m sq ft, it is 24% up on the 12 month average. However, this will be more of a function of occupiers taking longer to make their decisions as opposed to 'pent up' demand. For instance, 51% of these requirements have been tracked for at least 6 months already, while 35% of them have been known for longer than 12 months.


Analysis close up

 

Table 2

TABLE 2Monthly take-up

Table 3

TABLE 3Year-to-date take-up

Table 4

TABLE 4Rents

Table 5

TABLE 5Supply

Table 6

TABLE 6Development pipeline

Table 7

TABLE 7Demand & under offers

Completions due in the next six months are included in the supply figures

*Average prime rents for preceding three months

** Average rent free on leases of 10 years with no breaks for preceding three months

N.B We have amended our historic stock figure, resulting in a slight change of our historic vacancy rates (Aug 2015)

Table 8

TABLE 8Significant August transactions

Table 9

TABLE 9Significant supply

Map 1

MAP 1Savills City Office Market Area (updated at the end of each quarter)

Source: Savills Research