Publication

West End Investment Watch – August 2016

£1.3bn of West End deals lost post-Brexit

Market comment and notable deals

■ Over a month has passed since the UK voted to leave the European Union. In the immediate aftermath, transactional fallout has totalled £1.3bn of deals. Only 10% of these have recovered and since exchanged. These ‘recovered deals’ have been supplemented by other new purchases and sales bringing the total July volume to £819m over six transactions.

Graph 1

GRAPH 1July Transaction Volumes

Source: Savills Research

■ In contrast, over the last five years July has averaged 19 deals for the month, again highlighting the dramatic effect the referendum has had on even the arguably robust West End market.

■ Post-Brexit turnover has been driven by larger deals over £100m including a single stand out transaction of £400m and two sales from a fund needing to dispose of their largest assets in order to improve their cash position quickly to satisfy redemptions.

■ In an off market transaction, British Land sold 334-348 Oxford Street for £400m reflecting a net initial yield of 2.4% and a capital value of £1,091 per sq ft. The freehold island site of 1.33 acres is single let to Debenhams and expires in 2039. The lease has fixed rental increases of 2.5% per annum. The interest was acquired by Ramsbury, the investment company of Stefan Persson, the owner of fashion brand H&M and one of the worlds richest individuals. We understand pricing was agreed prior to the referendum date and that there was no price adjustment following the result.

■ Norges Bank Investment Management acquired Sedley Place, 355-361 Oxford Street for £124m reflecting a net initial yield of 3.55% and a capital value of £2,109 per sq ft. The Long Leasehold interest (139 years unexpired / 10% gearing) is majority let to Boots with approximately nine years remaining. The deal was completed just days after being discretely launched for sale by Aberdeen Asset Management. We believe there was a material overbid from a reputable private overseas investor but this was rejected due to the longer completion timeline.

■ In arguably the most discussed transaction post referendum, Aberdeen sold 10 Hammersmith Grove to Brockton Capital. The property has been newly developed and comprises 125,000 sq ft of office and restaurant accommodation with a weighted unexpired term of just under 10 years. The Long Leasehold interest (169 years unexpired) was originally offered for £105m reflecting a net initial yield of 5%. However the final agreed sale price was £89m, reflecting a net initial yield of 5.89% and a capital value of £725 per sq ft after Brockton offered a short completion timeline. We predict that this will be seen as one of the best value purchases when we reflect on 2016.

■ Whilst there is much talk at present regarding potential post Brexit discounts there is still too little evidence to assimilate a true picture on values. To date, income opportunities, especially those with indexation, have unsurprisingly held firm and those properties with inherent risk have been discounted the most and in cases by over 10%. It is also evident that speed of sale has been a key factor in discounting and in the absence of “distressed” owners asset values for now are likely to appear robust.

■ The IPD average equivalent and initial yields stand at 4.7% and 3.06%, respectively. The Savills prime yield remains at 3.50% for now.

Graph 2

GRAPH 2Yields

Source: Savills Research, IPD

Table 1

TABLE 1Key Deals in July 2016