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Brexit Briefing: The Impact on the Prime Market

How will the prime housing markets respond to the Brexit vote?

Summary

■ In the period of the past 18 months the prime housing markets across the UK have faced a number of headwinds, with high rates of stamp duty chief among them. The referendum vote to leave the EU is expected to result in added caution.

■ The diverse nature of the prime housing market means the effects will be uneven. The impact on each submarket depends on where it is in the cycle and the nature of demand which drives it.

■ In central London we have seen the fall in sterling stimulate new international demand, particularly in the new build market. However, we believe overseas buyers will want to be sure that property is identifiably good value both in terms of the sterling price and their own currency given a less hospitable UK tax environment.

■ More generally, early indications are that a relatively high proportion of sellers have already adjusted their price expectations, while there remains a seam of demand for good quality, well-priced stock.

■ Given the underlying uncertainty, we would expect the market to be dominated by needs based buyers in the short term, although there will also be some opportunists looking for value.

■ Committed sellers will need to be both realistic and flexible in their price expectations, responding to changes in market sentiment.

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