Publication

UK Shopping Centre and High Street Bulletin Q2 2016

Brexit will create some investment opportunities, but nowhere near the scale that opportunistic buyers are seeking

Summary

■ While the political and market shocks of Brexit are now well-established, the impacts on the consumer economy are yet to be felt. We believe that some commentators are overstating the risks around recession, but the next six months will be all about the leading indicators for Christmas trading.

■ Occupational demand is unlikely to react quickly to the referendum result. However, the challenges facing retailers have undoubtedly intensified, and this will impact on requirements in 2017.

■ Investor demand in the shopping centre sector was already faltering before the referendum, and this will continue in the remainder of the year. Investment volumes in 2016 are likely to be the lowest since the Global Financial Crisis.

■ High street shop investment volumes will be more resilient, due to the smaller lot sizes. However, secondary assets in both sectors will see upward pressure on yields, and this will excite the increasing number of opportunistic investors who are now focusing on the UK.

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