Source: Savills Research
15.6% total returns for City offices according to IPD
Market comment and notable deals
■ May turnover was £693m across 10 deals bringing year-to-date total City turnover to £3.6bn, which is 17% down on this point last year.
■ The 12-month rolling turnover for the City is currently at £9.9bn, 35% up on the long-term average.
GRAPH 1City turnover
■ In the City market, we are currently monitoring 67 investment opportunities totalling £4.5bn. Of this, we are aware 25 are currently under-offer totalling circa £0.9bn, leaving an estimated £3.6bn worth of available opportunities.
■ A notable deal from May was the purchase of a 50% stake in Principal Place, EC2 for £382m, 4.00% and £1,259/sq ft. The property is 71% pre-let to Amazon who have an option over the remaining space. The asset was purchased by ENPAM from Brookfield, who are retaining the remaining 50%.
■ Another deal which exchanged in May was the purchase of The Eye, 110 High Holborn for £98.75m, 5.28% and £842/sq ft. The property is let to tenants including Reed Business Information, Picton Howell and Capita Symonds. The asset was acquired by UOL Group Ltd from UBS.
■ Of the 65 City transactions so far this year, the fringe has accounted for the largest number at 33 (46% of turnover). The core has accounted for 22 transactions (41% of turnover), Midtown with 8 transactions (10% of turnover), and the Docklands 2 transactions (3% of turnover).
■ To date in 2016 Asian purchasers have accounted for the highest level of turnover (44%), followed by UK purchasers (26%) and European (16%). However, there remains relatively little activity from Middle Eastern (1%) and US (1%) purchasers.
GRAPH 2City 2016 turnover by nationality
Source: Savills Research
■ The average capital value for transactions so far this year in the City core is £903/sq ft compared to 2015's average of £853/sq ft. Moreover, the average capital value for transactions so far this year in the City fringe is £879/ sq ft, significantly higher than last year's annual average of £702/sq ft - the highest annual average on record.
■ At the end of April, IPD stated total returns for City offices were at 15.6%, down from 24.5% at this time last year. This is primarily due to the slow down of capital growth, whereas income return has remained stable. This fall may appear significant at first glance, but when we compare City office total returns with other asset classes it is still performing significantly better. At the end of April, UK 10-year Gilts were 4.0%, Global equities were 6.0% and Gold, which produces no income, was at 7.4%.
■ Savills prime City yield remains at 4%, an all time record low. The spread between the City and the West End is currently at 75bps with the West End prime yield 3.25%.
GRAPH 3City income return & capital value growth
Graph Source: IPD
TABLE 1Key deals in May 2016
Source: Savills Research