Publication

City Office Market Watch – May 2016

More deals over £70.00/sq ft so far this year than across the whole of 2014

Supply and demand snapshot

■ Take-up for April was 316,885 sq ft, bringing the year-to-date City total to 2m sq ft, which is 22% down on this point last year. However, it is still 20% up on this point in 2014, which saw record annual take-up of 8.2m sq ft.

■ 87% of all April transactions were of a Grade A standard.

Table 1

TABLE 1Key April stats

Source: Savills Research

■ April's activity has brought the 12-month rolling take-up figure to 6.9m sq ft, which is still 40% up on the longterm average (Graph 1).

■ There have been 162 transactions so far this year, compared with 188 at this point last year.

■ The largest deal of the month was the acquisition of 46,489 sq ft at 55 Bishopsgate, EC2 by Charles Stanley. They took the space at a rent of £53.00/sq ft, on a sub-lease until September 2023 from AON.

■ Another notable deal was the acquisition of floors 9 and 10 (29,407 sq ft) at The White Collar Factory, EC1 by Capital One. The Derwent scheme, which is scheduled for delivery in Q4 2016, is now 51% pre-let.

Graph 1

GRAPH 1City 12-month rolling take-up

Source: Savills Research

■ So far this year, Insurance & Financial services have accounted for the greatest amount of take-up at 31%. They are followed by Tech & Media (11%), Retail & Leisure (11%), and Professional (11%). In contrast to last year, serviced offices have accounted for just 1% of take-up.

■ Total City supply stood at 5.6m sq ft, equating to a vacancy rate of 4.5%, down on this point last year by 0.7%.

■ There is currently 1.4m sq ft of space under-offer in the City, which is 8% up on the long-term average. Of this, 487,859 sq ft went under-offer in April alone.

■ The top rent achieved in April was £72.50/sq ft when Currency Cloud took level 1 (9,730 sq ft) at The Steward Building, E1.

■ Historically in the City, the £40 - £49.99/ sq ft rent bracket has accounted for the greatest number of deals done annually. However, this has been changing over the course of the last two years. Last year, the £50 - £59.99/sq ft bracket accounted for the greatest number of deals. Moreover, so far this year the £60 - £69.99/sq ft rent band has accounted for the most deals, and we have already seen more deals done above £70/sq ft this year than across the whole of 2014 (Graph 2).

■ We are currently tracking 17.5m sq ft of refurbishments and developments due to arrive to the market between now and the end of 2019, of which 26% is already pre-let.

■ At no point in the next five years will development completions in the City exceed 80% of forecasted take-up (a good metric of impending supply). As a result, this should keep the City vacancy rate below 8%, which historically has been a key marker to indicate oversupply.

Graph 2

GRAPH 2City rent-brackets

Source: Savills Research

 

Table 2

TABLE 2Monthly take-up

Table 3

TABLE 3Year-to-date take-up

Table 4

TABLE 4Rents

Table 5

TABLE 5Supply

Table 6

TABLE 6Development pipeline

Table 7

TABLE 7Demand & under offers

Completions due in the next six months are included in the supply figures

*Average prime rents for preceding three months

** Average rent free on leases of 10 years with no breaks for preceding three months

N.B We have amended our historic stock figure, resulting in a slight change of our historic vacancy rates (Aug 2015)

Table 8

TABLE 8Significant April transactions

Table 9

TABLE 9Significant supply

Map 1

MAP 1Savills City Office Market Area (updated at the end of each quarter)

Source: Savills Research