Research article

Getting Over The Growing Pains

Meeting demand for workplaces and homes requires bold decisions. We explore options for further growth

Business as usual is not an option. To remain competitive on the global stage, Cambridge must embrace growth and provide both new commercial space for its thriving industries and affordable residential properties for the workforce of the future.

Without bold action, successful existing businesses will not be able to expand, new ones will go elsewhere, and attracting and retaining staff will become increasingly difficult due to a lack of affordable housing.

In this section we set out three options for growth, looking at how they could be achieved and the potential barriers to delivery. We believe that only by using a blend of all three can the growth needs of the city be fully met.

In no particular order, the first option is to increase densities in existing locations. The second is to expand the urban area of the city, by altering the inside edge of the Green Belt boundary again. Finally, expansion could be delivered through extending surrounding towns and villages and developing new settlements in the wider area.

The Cambridge sub-region (stretching from Huntingdon to Bury St Edmunds and Ely to Saffron Walden) has an enormous role to play in accommodating the city’s housing needs. According to our database, which monitors the development pipeline, we expect to see almost 12,000 new homes delivered in Cambridge and across this area over the next five years, with the potential for a further 59,000 new homes in the longer term (see below).

Anticipated housing development

Anticipated housing development

The Market at a glance

The Market at a glance

Source: Savills development database (schemes over 300 units), Land Registry

Building up

First, some myth-busting: high density does not mean towers and skyscrapers, and densification does not mean demolishing existing stock. Using space more efficiently in the city could mean adding storeys to office and laboratory buildings, or infill development of lower density residential suburbs.

This approach is likely to work best with commercial developments, as tech and science occupiers derive a lot of benefit through clustering together and there is scope to densify science parks by adding new buildings.

There are limited examples of this approach being put into practice, particularly in the area south of the city centre around the station, with the Botanic House office building and the 10-storey Marque apartment scheme on Hills Road the tallest in the area.

Building out

Expanding outwards is the default option for urban areas without a Green Belt or a tightly drawn local authority boundary. But Cambridge has both of these issues. Dealing with them is a political problem more than anything else – the land is there, developers want to build on it, and people would happily move there.

One method for expanding a constrained city was put forward by URBED in their successful 2014 Wolfson Economics Prize entry, suggesting Britain needs to “take a confident bite out of the Green Belt” and allow successful cities to grow up to twice their current size. This would be carried out through a series of urban extensions, all served with new amenities and public transport links.

The last major review of the Green Belt was under the Cambridge Local Plan in 2006. Land for 6,000 homes in the Green Belt was released, mainly to the north west and south of the then urban area. The latter is now known as the Southern Fringe, where new residential districts totalling thousands of homes are currently under construction, providing new homes at a more affordable price point compared with the traditional prime city centre locations. But despite the obvious pressure on the housing market local opposition to further releases is fierce.

In some parts of the city expanding the urban area would increasingly involve developing in South Cambridgeshire, adding complexity to the situation. The neighbouring councils have set up a Joint Strategic Planning Unit and their Local Plans are being jointly examined. They are also working together as part of the Greater Cambridge City Deal, and further devolution of powers is mooted too.

Building elsewhere

This final approach is the main one being pursued at present: a combination of expanding existing satellite towns and villages and creating new ones. Many of the sites in the pipeline are former RAF airfields, fulfilling criteria for brownfield redevelopment and efficient use of surplus public sector land and avoiding the opposition faced by Green Belt proposals.

The benefits of satellite towns, Garden Villages and new settlements are clear. Homes are much more affordable than those in Cambridge, with the average value of the towns listed opposite, approximately 50% lower. There are also positives in terms of capacity – sites at various stages of planning or construction include 9,500 homes at Northstowe, 8,000 at Waterbeach, 5,000 at Alconbury and 3,750 at Wyton.

But there are barriers to successfully creating new places. Although the total capacity is high the projects are often very long term, due to a combination of long lead-in times and slower sales rate in comparatively weaker markets. In conjunction with the large costs involved in bringing forward such schemes this results in a lot of risk.

The heritage city is a global success story

▲ The heritage city is a global success story


Commuting in Cambridge

The dominance of car commuting As we’ve seen earlier in the report, most major employers want to be based in central areas, leading to a lot of commuting into the city. This has implications for the local transport infrastructure.

The chart below shows both the proportion of working residents in each district who commute to Cambridge (black diamonds) and the main method they use to travel to the city. The dominance of cars is overwhelming, even from neighbouring South Cambridgeshire.

In the 2011 Census Cambourne had a working population of over 3,000 people, of which 33% worked in Cambridge and 37% in South Cambridgeshire. Over 75% of both groups typically travelled to work by car, an indication of the need to make sure infrastructure – in particular transport – is planned and delivered in parallel with housing.

The guided busway, improvements to the A14, a new Cambridge North station, and the proposed reconstruction of rail links to Bedford are all steps in the right direction for increasing capacity and opening up new sites for development.

Figure 11

FIGURE 11Travel to work breakdown

Source: Census 2011

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