■  Four of the nine monitored categories posted declines in April, with public office work seeing the sharpest downturn.

^{Source: Markit, Savills Research}

Future Expectations

■ Confidence among UK commercial developers dipped further during April.

■ Down from +2.3% to +1.6%, the net balance highlighted the weakest degree of optimism since November 2012.

■ Subdued confidence was linked by survey respondents to uncertainty regarding the EU referendum.

^{Source: Markit, Savills Research}

Commercial Activity and UK Economy

■ The chart below shows the Savills Total Activity Index against the UK Construction PMI^®.

■ Growth of UK construction as measured by the PMI softened to the slowest since mid-2013, with the headline index falling from 54.2 in March to 52.0 in April.

■ By comparison, the Savills survey pointed to the first contraction in commercial activity since August 2012, although the rate of reduction was only slight.

^{Source: Markit, Savills Research}

Total level of commercial activity compared with one month ago

■ April data pointed to an overall contraction in commercial activity across the UK, thereby ending a 43-month sequence of uninterrupted growth.

■ This mainly reflected the sharpest drop in public projects since August 2012. Private work rose further, but at the slowest pace in the current 44-month period of growth.

Office activity compared with one month ago

■ The downturn in public office activity intensified in April, with the respective index dipping to -21.7%, its lowest mark since August 2012.

■ Private office work decreased for the first time in 44 months, with a net balance of -6.2% of commercial developers noting a contraction.

Retail & leisure activity compared with one month ago

■ UK commercial developers signalled further declines in public retail & leisure projects in April, marking a five-month sequence of contraction. Moreover, the pace of reduction was the sharpest in almost four years.

■ Private retail & leisure activity continued to rise, although growth softened to the slowest in the current 39-month period of expansion.

New build activity compared with one month ago

■ Public new build projects decreased at the quickest pace since August 2012 during April. The net balance dropped from -8.2% in the prior month to -16.7%.

■ Growth of private new build work was sustained, but the rate of expansion eased to the slowest in over three-and-a-half years.

Industrial/warehouse activity compared with one month ago

■ April data pointed to a forty-fourth successive monthly rise in industrial/warehouse activity.

■ Although the weakest since the opening month of 2016, the rate of expansion was solid, as indicated by the respective net balance recording +11.3%.

Refurbishment activity compared with one month ago

■ UK commercial developers indicated further growth of refurbishment activity during April, marking a 44-month period of continuous expansion.

■ Having fallen from +10.2% in March to +4.5%, the net balance was at a 44-month low and pointed to a modest rate of increase overall.

Office fit-out activity compared with one month ago

■ Office fit-out projects across the UK increased for the third month running in April, although at the weakest pace in this sequence.

■ The net balance fell from +3.9% in March to +1.2%, pointing to only a marginal rate of expansion.

Summary of activity in April

■ April saw the first decline in total commercial activity in 44 months, with the downturn in public work accelerating sharply and growth of private projects easing markedly.

■ Four of the nine monitored categories saw decreases, namely public office, public retail & leisure, public new build and private office.

■ The sharpest drop was seen for public office activity, which fell at the quickest pace in more than three-and-a-half years.

■ Industrial/warehouse remained the best performing category, despite its rate of expansion softening.

Regional commercial activity compared with one month ago

■ Broad-based growth of commercial activity was sustained in April, although rates of expansion eased across the three monitored regions and were marginal in all cases.

■ The South East saw the weakest rise in activity since November 2012, with the net balance dipping to +3.1%.

■ The net balance for London was down from +6.8% to a three-month low of +4.2%.

■ The net balance for the ‘Rest of UK’ dropped from +12.1% to +4.2%, it’s lowest reading in the current 45-month sequence of growth.