Full-time student numbers increased for the 2014/15 academic year and are nearly back at 2010/11 numbers. But it is not good news everywhere as total student numbers fell by 1.4%. This overall fall reflects students’ search for quality and value for money in the higher fee environment.

As in previous years, the 1.4% fall in total student numbers in the 2014/15 academic year hides a wide variation in performance. The majority of the decline (91%) was due to fewer UK part-time undergraduates and this trend has continued to affect student numbers at lower ranking institutions hardest. Meanwhile, the higher ranked institutions have continued to attract overseas students, but UK undergraduate numbers at the top 20 institutions (according to the Complete University Guide) were only up by 1.4% on the previous year.

^{Source: HESA, Complete University Guide}

Analysis of full-time student numbers by degree subject reinforces this trend towards value for money and shows a continuing preference for STEM subjects. A comparison with the Institute for Fiscal Studies’ April 2016 report on graduate earnings offers some interesting additional information on the earning potential of students at different institutions and studying different subjects.

The report highlighted that studying at higher ranked institutions tends to result in higher earnings after ten years but is also dependent on the course chosen and family background. Although there is not a direct correlation between the trends in full-time student numbers and earnings potential, it is perhaps unsurprising that creative arts courses have seen the biggest fall in numbers since 2011/12 and students graduating with a creative arts degree had the lowest average earnings after ten years.

^{Source: HESA}

Looking ahead it is always worth noting that the HESA data provides a view of the market last year. Our analysis of other indicators suggests that there was a 20,000 increase in number of first year full-time undergraduates for this academic year (2015/16). However, early indicators from UCAS applications suggests that student numbers for the 2016/17 academic year may be static, with applications from UK and non-EU students similar to last year and a 6% increase in applications from the EU.

^{Source: HESA, UCAS, * Savills Estimates}