Research article

Outlook

Great potential for mixed-use development beyond central London

■ London needs to provide a greater number of homes and an increased variety of more affordable workplaces. We estimate the capital requires 64,000 new homes a year. We also need to deliver 4m sq ft of new office space a year to meet demand for workplaces. Building a combination of uses at neighbourhood level in well connected areas is the best way to intensify development and optimise London’s land.

■ Developing town centres away from central London provide opportunities to deliver necessary homes and offices. Our forecasts for both residential capital values and office rents suggests that this is a good time to consider the outer boroughs.

■ Croydon tops our list as the hottest market for office rental growth in London and the South East. We expect office rents to rise by an average of 27.8% a year over the next five years, far surpassing office rental growth in the City and West End but starting from a far lower base.

■ We expect to see a more muted residential market. House price inflation in London has slowed significantly except in the outer London boroughs which are still seeing annual growth of up to 17%.

■ This trend is likely to continue, with price growth in the outer boroughs exceeding our five year forecast for the London average of 15.3%, as buyers seek better value away from the centre. Areas benefitting from transport improvements and significant high-quality regeneration and place-making are likely to see value uplift ahead of these borough averages.

■ We estimate that there is an annual shortfall of housing of 27,500 with greatest need for homes priced below £450psf. Building in the outer boroughs is more likely to service demand in the price bands with the greatest shortfall.

■ A wider tenure mix will still be necessary including homes for rent via institutional PRS and homes for sale at sub-market levels via schemes such as Starter Homes and shared ownership.

■ Infrastructure is a key trigger. By opening up new sites and parts of outer London, new lines such as Crossrail (1 and 2) can trigger development, particularly when these new stations are accompanied by bold plans for place improvement.

■ The disposal of surplus public land (already underway and helped by London Land Commission), will help bring forward many new sites for much needed development. However, we would question whether London can accommodate its growth within its city boundaries. Co-operating with surrounding local authorities to identify sites and bring forward development should be a key step for the new Mayor.

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