New train lines and station openings act as a catalyst for development and regeneration. To make the best use of London’s land we need to deliver the right balance of homes, workplaces and supporting local amenities.
In our 2015 report, ‘London Development: Towards 50,000 homes a year’, we identified 21 hotspots which could deliver 58,000 additional new homes by 2025. Here, we have analysed which of those locations could support a combination of homes and workplaces.
We picked eight locations where good connectivity allows building at higher densities to deliver a mix: Tottenham Hale, Croydon, Stratford, Canada Water, Wembley, Clapham Junction, Brent Cross and Royal Docks. Some of these locations are currently under a period of complete transformation.
There are four main factors governing decisions on where to locate an office: connectivity, cost, clustering potential and amenity provision. Most of these elements also influence where people like to live and hence demand for housing. However, developers must also consider Community Infrastructure Levy, the requirement for affordable housing and build costs in the decision process.
A key element in the success of a mixed use scheme is access to transport. Employers are hesitant to move to poorly connected locations for fear of losing staff. Most prefer locations where there is access via more than one mode of public transport. The Transport for London (TfL) Public Transport Access Levels (PTAL), scores locations in regard to their proximity to existing public transport and the frequency of services.
Six of the locations all score highly in the TfL’s PTAL rating: Tottenham Hale, Croydon, Stratford, Canada Water, Wembley and Clapham Junction all scored above six, highlighting their excellent connectivity and hence how this will appeal to an employer’s labour force. Royal Docks will improve with the arrival of Crossrail, now Elizabeth Line. Brent Cross will also benefit from a new station.
The infrastructure improvements, both confirmed and proposed, will provide additional transport capacity to areas that are already well connected and open up new areas.
Crossrail is expected to open from 2017, with trains starting to operate in phases until the full service is delivered by the end of 2019. The current ambition is to open Crossrail 2 by 2033, and £80 million was committed by Government in the latest budget to get the project through the initial planning phases.
Of our development hotspots, Croydon currently has the most mature office market and an existing residential market. However, with significant regeneration in progress, including the delivery of new retail development, Croydon’s reinvention can drive the office market forward to attract larger employers.
Stratford has developed from a standing start and has continued to evolve since the Olympics. The Royal Docks, like Stratford, has developed from a low base and is certainly a market of the future.
Wembley saw considerable investment and development in the last property cycle. New build residential values are outperforming the second hand market. The delivery of an office element will provide choice for companies moving out from central locations.
As part of the GLA ‘Housing Zones’ programme, Tottenham Hale, Clapham Junction and Canada Water benefit from access to finance to provide local infrastructure improvements, greater planning certainty for developers and political drive to speed up delivery.
Tottenham Hale’s relative location to Central London, makes it an area to watch. Clapham Junction offers exceptional connectivity and is close to a rich seam of labour in the London market. Of the three ‘emerging’ locations, Canada Water has the potential to be the most significant development over the next 15 years with the capacity to create 15,000 jobs.
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