Publication

City Investment Watch – April 2016

£1.4bn transacted in Q1 2016, with the 12-month turnover still above average

Market comment and notable deals

■  March turnover was £523.8m across 11 deals. This brings year-to-date total City turnover to £1.4bn, which is 33% down on this point last year, but just 6% down on the longterm average for the first quarter.

■ The 12-month rolling turnover for the City is currently at £9.9bn, which is 35% up on the long-term average.

Graph 1

GRAPH 1City turnover

Source: Savills Research

■ In the City market, we are currently monitoring 75 investment opportunities totalling £5.9bn. Of this, we are aware 30 are currently under-offer totalling circa £2.7bn, leaving an estimated £3.2bn worth of available investment opportunities.

■ A notable deal from March was the purchase of Thomas More Square Estate, E1 for circa £300m, 5.82% and £518/sq ft. The 579,630 sq ft office and retail estate is home to over 25 central London occupiers and headquarters to six. Fosun & Resolution bought the asset from Land Securities.

■ Another deal which completed in March was the purchase of 1 Bishopsgate, EC2 for £31m, 3.52% NIY and £1,174/sq ft. The 26,406 sq ft multi-let property was bought by a private Spanish investor.

■ Of the 33 transactions so far this year in the City, the City fringe has accounted for the greatest number at 16 (38% of turnover).

■ To date in 2016 UK purchasers have accounted for 52% of all transactional volume. Asian purchasers are next with 30%, while there has been little activity so far from European (5%), Middle Eastern (3%) and US (2%) purchasers.

Graph 2

GRAPH 2City 2016 turnover by nationality

Source: Savills Research

■ The average capital value for transactions in Q1 this year in the City core is £869/sq ft compared to 2015's average of £864/sq ft.

 Moreover, the average capital value for transactions in Q1 this year in the City fringe is £816/sq ft, significantly higher than last year's annual average of £702/sq ft - the highest annual average on record.

■ With BREXIT looming, and decisions being delayed, it seems sensible to anticipate a more subdued Q2. However, with £2.7bn currently under offer, of which £1.7bn is spread across six trophy assets, we could see a period of above average turnover if these deals complete within the next three months. Furthermore, by Q3 a decision will have been made regarding our European status, and a flurry of activity is expected as a result.

■ Savills prime City yield remains at 4%, which is an all time record low. Moreover, the spread between the City and the West End remains at 100bps with the West End prime yield at 3%.

Graph 3

GRAPH 312-month rolling turnover & prime yield

Source: Savills Research

Table 1

TABLE 1Key deals in March 2016

Source: Savills Research