Source: Savills Research
Q1 2016 turnover was 50% above West End five-year average
Market comment and notable deals
■ March saw volumes of £458m over 10 transactions, bringing Q1 2016 turnover to £2.04bn over 30 transactions. This was the largest Q1 turnover figure on record and the first time it has tipped over £2bn. This has been driven by a number of large transactions; illustrated by almost 60% of turnover being made up of seven transactions over £100m. The average deal size for the quarter was also almost 100% in excess of the ten year average (see Graph 1).
GRAPH 1Q1 Turnover & Average Deal Size
■ In the largest deal of the month Aberdeen Asset Management sold 14 St George Street to Chinese Estates for £121.7m, reflecting a 3.5% net initial yield and a capital value of £2,347 per sq ft. The freehold interest comprises 51,861 sq ft of office accommodation let to Kleinwort Benson and Trafigura until May 2020 at an overall passing rent of £86.88 per sq ft. The property, originally marketed in November 2015, was rumoured to have been under offer to IVG at a higher price before Chinese Estates acquired the asset at quoting.
■ In the second of three Aberdeen Asset Management sales in March, 7-11 Herbrand Street traded for £56m, reflecting a 4.73% net initial yield and a capital value of £788 per sq ft. The 66,406 sq ft office property is single let to McCann Erickson until 2020 at an average overall rent of £42.16 per sq ft. Market Tech Holdings, a company backed by Israeli billionaire Teddy Sagi, acquired the property, exchanging in four days upon agreement of heads of terms in order to beat the commercial stamp duty rise which came into effect on 17th March.
■ Off-market, South Korean shipping line Hanjin Shipping sold the freehold block comprising 1-3 Dover Street & 67-68 Piccadilly to the US real estate investment company Thor Equities for £47.2m, reflecting a 2.9% net initial yield and a capital value of £2,298 per sq ft. The asset was rumoured to be available at the start of 2016 as it was reported that the vendor, a listed subsidiary of Korean Air, needed a quick capital release. Considering recent evidence in the area and the reversionary nature of the asset, pricing looks reasonable.
■ There has been a small upward trend in both the IPD average equivalent and initial yields this month to 4.69% and 2.99%, respectively, and it is evident sentiment has changed ahead of the referendum. This associated with the slow down in the domestic residential market and the global economy suggests yields will soften further in the coming months.
■ As turnover suggests, availability remained resilient in Q1 with £1.4bn launched to the market over 44 transactions; compared to £1.6bn over 36 transactions over the same period last year. Whilst we predict a slowdown in new supply of stock as we approach the referendum date, inevitably some will still seek to place product either openly or on the grey market in the intervening period.
GRAPH 2Yields
Source: Savills Research, IPD
TABLE 1Key Deals In March 2016