■ Bristol is set for further growth. The population is projected to increase by 9.3% between 2015 and 2025, adding 41,000 more people to a city of 450,000. Over the next five years, total employment growth in Bristol (4.9%) is expected to outperform the UK average of 3.0%. Bristol’s office based employment over this period is expected to grow by 7.1%, above the UK average of 5.4%.
■ Infrastructure improvements such as the electrification of the Great Western railway, cutting journey times to Cardiff and London and faster internet connections will add to the momentum. The MetroBus network to be launched next year will support development in the Bristol conurbation.
■ Bristol is set to become the next gig-city, benefitting from gigabit internet speeds which will further support its growing TMT sector.
■ Wider Bristol area needs at least 84,364 new homes over the next 20 years, according to official estimates. Alternative estimates, including work by Professor Glen Bramley for West of England Partnership, suggest higher targets would be more appropriate.
■ The supply/demand imbalance is set to push up house prices in Bristol. We forecast that house prices in the South West will rise by 20% over the next five years outpacing London (15%). Bristol should continue to outperform the rest of the region with steeper growth over the period.
■ The shortage of office space and quality future developments will push up office rents. Bristol is likely to see the strongest rental growth of all UK cities. We expect Grade A rents in Bristol to rise to £35.00 per sq ft by the end of 2020.
■ The devolution agenda will give the region more power but place a greater onus on the four West of England councils to work together. Under the devolution agreement announced in this year’s budget, the West of England Combined Authority, working with a new elected Mayor for the combined authority, will receive £30 million a year funding over 30 years to boost the region’s growth.
■ As part of greater regional responsibilities, the authorities have agreed to bring forward a Joint Transport Plan by the end of 2017. The councils also aim to accelerate housing delivery by prioritising investment in infrastructure associated with development including transport, schools and health. The devolution package also gives the region responsibility for the further education budget.
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