■ Generally, we believe that the medium-term implications of the result of the referendum are relatively unimportant for real estate. The fundamental attractions of all three asset classes have more to do with the assets themselves than whether they sit within or outside the EU.
■ However, we do believe that short-term economic uncertainty could impact on transaction volumes across all three sectors.
■ A vote to stay in the EU would result in restored demand, though the extent of a ‘relief rush’ would vary from sector to sector. In the event of a vote to leave, such uncertainty would be extended to the period during which the UK renegotiates its relationship with the EU and other major trading partners.
■ The biggest direct risk is the potential long-term reduction in subsidies in the agricultural sector. In the commercial markets we do not feel that there is a substantial risk of companies relocating from London in significant numbers. While short-term risks in the residential sector are greatest in those markets where international buyers are most active, we believe the impact on the wider UK market remains largely dependent on domestic factors.