Publication

City Office Market Watch – January 2016

Story of 2015 – high take-up, low supply, record rents, and the growth of serviced offices.

■ Take-up for December was 772,590 sq ft in 38 transactions, bringing the 2015 annual total to 7,439,970 sq ft. This is 9% down on 2014's total figure but is still 43% up on the long-term annual average. 86% of all transactions have been of a Grade A standard.

■ The City Fringe accounted for 44% of 2015's take-up, which is significantly up on the long term average by 13%. This provides evidence to the notion that more occupiers are now seriously considering fringe locations.

Table 1

TABLE 1Key December stats

Source: Savills Research

■ The largest deal of the month was the acquisition of the G - 5 floors (97,606 sq ft)of 3 Waterhouse Square, EC1 by WeWork. The serviced office provider is believed to have taken the space at an average rent of £55.00/ sq ft. Furthermore, they also took the entire Provost & East building on City Road, EC1 (88,058 sq ft). They are believed to paying circa £58.00/sq ft.

■ Another notable deal was the acquisition of levels 32, 33, 36 and 37 (47,830 sq ft) of The Salesforce Tower by Salesforce to meet their expansion needs. The tower is now entirely let.

■ For 2015, the Professional services sector accounted for the greatest quantum of take-up in the City at 18%, closely followed by the Insurance & Financial services sector at 17%. There has been good activity from the TMT sector which accounted for 14%. Furthermore, following RBC taking 244,561 sq ft at 100 Bishopsgate, the Banking sector has accounted for 8% of total take-up compared with just 4% last year.

■ Moreover, Serviced Office Providers accounted for 13% of total take-up for 2015. This is a relatively new sector experiencing rapid growth, which obviously raises questions regarding the sustainability of this sector. Currently, these companies appear to be performing well with many claiming to be over-subscribed.

Graph 1

GRAPH 1City take-up by market

Source: Savills Research

■ In 2015, for deals of 20,000 sq ft plus there was a further 315,566 sq ft of tenant migration of occupiers moving from the West End to the City. This has resulted in a total of 1.1m sq ft of tenant drift from west to east over the last two years. In 2015, 42% of the tenant migration into the City occurred in the northern and eastern fringes.

■ At the end of December, total City supply stood at 5.6m sq ft, equating to a vacancy rate of 4.5%, down on this point last year by 0.8%. The constraint on supply should be alleviated somewhat this coming year due to the arrival of large developments such as Creechurch Place EC3 (272,872 sq ft), Whitechapel Building E1 (255,000 sq ft), and White Collar Factory EC1 (214,492 sq ft still available) amongst others.

■ 2015 was certainly the year for rent records to be broken in the City. The highest rent of £90.00/sq ft was achieved twice. The highest annual average prime rent was achieved at £74.15/sq ft, and the highest annual average grade A rent was achieved at £54.94/sq ft.

Graph 2

GRAPH 2City rents

Source: Savills Research

 

Table 2

TABLE 2Monthly take-up

Table 3

TABLE 3Year-to-date take-up

Table 4

TABLE 4Rents

Table 5

TABLE 5Supply

Table 6

TABLE 6Development pipeline

Table 7

TABLE 7Demand & under offers

Completions due in the next six months are included in the supply figures

*Average prime rents for preceeding three months

** Average rent free on leases of 10 years with no breaks for preceeding three months

N.B We have amended our historic stock figure, resulting in a slight change of our historic vacancy rates (Aug 2015)

Table 8

TABLE 8Significant December transactions

Table 9

TABLE 9Significant supply

Map 1

MAP 1Savills City Office Market Area (updated at the end of each quarter)

Source: Savills Research