Publication

City Office Market Watch – December 2015

End of year take-up expected to surpass 7m sq ft for the third consecutive year.

■  Take-up for November was 566,308 sq ft in 28 transactions, bringing the year-to-date take-up to 6,685,707 sq ft. This is 11% down on this point last year, but already 29% up on the long-term annual average with December still remaining. 86% of all transactions have been of a Grade A standard.

■  The 12-month rolling take-up figure stood at 7.4m sq ft for the end of November, which is 50% above the long-term average (Graph 1).

Graph 1

GRAPH 1City 12-month rolling take-up

Source: Savills Research. 2015 data accurate to end of November

■  We anticipate total take-up to exceed 7m sq ft by the end of the year, which will be only the fourth time this has been achieved since 2000 (other years being 2000, 2013 & 2014).

■  The largest deal of the month was the pre-let deal of the 1st - 7th floors of 100 Bishopsgate to Royal Bank of Canada. The bank took the space on a 20 year lease at £59/sq ft with 36 months rent free. The Brookfield development is expected to reach PC by the end of 2018.

■  Another notable deal was the acquisition of the part 14th and 15th floors of Aldgate Tower, E1 by Ince & Co. The international law firm took 33,132 sq ft of space on a 17 year lease at £61.00/ sq ft.

■  To date, the Professional services sector has accounted for the majority of take-up in the City at 19%, closely followed by the Insurance & Financial services sector at 17%. There has been good activity from the TMT sector which has accounted for 12%. Furthermore, following RBC taking 244,561 sq ft at 100 Bishopsgate, the Banking sector has accounted for 9% of total take-up compared with just 4% last year.

■  However, the real growth has came through the serviced office providers who have accounted for 10% of total take-up. To put their growth into context, they have accounted for 1.9m sq ft of take-up over 2014 and 2015, compared with 1.5m sq ft over 2005 – 2013.

■  At the end of November, total City supply stood at 5.7m sq ft, equating to a vacancy rate of 4.6%, down on this point last year by 1.1%. The fall in supply has been a result of above average levels of take-up combined with a lack of new supply arriving to the market this year. We anticipate this to change next year when circa 3.2m sq ft of speculative space is scheduled to arrive, along with an expected slight drop in take-up levels.

■  So far this year, the average grade A rent for the City is £54.75/sq ft, while the average prime (average of top 10% of deals) is £74.75/sq ft. This has risen quite significantly compared with 2014, when the average grade A rent was £48.95/sq ft, and the average prime was £62.50/sq ft.

Graph 2

GRAPH 2City average rents

Source: Savills Research. 2015 data accurate to end of November

■  We have seen the gap between the rents in the City Core and the City Fringe narrowing. This year, the average grade A rent in the City Core is £55.90/sq ft, while the City Fringe is £52.06/sq ft, a gap of £3.84. This is significantly lower than last year where the gap between the two was £5.52.

■  We are currently forecasting rental growth of 4.5% for average grade A next year, and 4.2% for average prime.

■  Of the speculative space scheduled to arrive in 2016, 54% is within the City Core.

Table 1

TABLE 1Key November stats

Source: Savills Research 

Analysis close up
Table 2

TABLE 2Monthly take-up

Table 3

TABLE 3Year-to-date take-up

Table 4

TABLE 4Rents

Table 5

TABLE 5Supply

Table 6

TABLE 6Development pipeline

Table 7

TABLE 7Demand & under offers

Completions due in the next six months are included in the supply figures

*Average prime rents for preceeding three months

** Average rent free on leases of 10 years with no breaks for preceeding three months

N.B We have amended our historic stock figure, resulting in a slight change of our historic vacancy rates (Aug 2015)

Table 8

TABLE 8Significant November transactions

Table 9

TABLE 9Significant supply

Map 1

MAP 1Savills City Office Market Area (updated at the end of each quarter)

Source: Savills Research