Publication

City Investment Watch – December 2015

£11bn forecasted for 2015, which would be 85% up on the long-term annual average, and the third biggest year ever.

Market comment and notable deals

■ November turnover was £1.47bn across 9 deals, resulting in the year-to-date turnover reaching £9.27bn across 116 deals. This is 3% down on this point last year but still 56% up on the longterm annual average with December still to go. Moreover, November has accounted for the largest monthly turnover so far, underlining the fact that generally Q4 accounts for the highest amount of activity (Graph 1).

Graph 1

GRAPH 1City turnover

Source: Savills Research

■ We expect to see c.£11bn achieved in the City, and c£8.4bn in the West End, bringing the projected end of year total for Central London to £19.4bn. This is still 81% up on the long term average and only slightly down from the record year in 2014.

■ For the City this would represent the 3rd largest annual investment turnover ever.

■ Based on our prediction for the end of Q4, on average for the last 3 years, Q4 has accounted for 44% of the annual turnover.

■ The largest deal of the month was the purchase of Broadgate Quarter, EC2 by Blackstone for £416m, 4.93% and £915/ sq ft. The 454,797 sq ft freehold building is multi-let to 11 office tenants and 3 restaurants.

■ Another notable deal which completed was the purchase of the Blue Fin Building, SE1 by Oxford Properties & Tamasek for £415m, 4.94% and £961/sq ft. The 431,779 sq ft building is principally occupied by Time Inc.

■ So far this year, UK purchasers have accounted for a greater amount of turnover than previous years at £2.5bn over 70 deals. Asian purchasers have accounted for £2.1bn across 15 deals, whilst purchasers from the US have accounted for £1.8bn across 16 deals (Graph 2).

Graph 2

GRAPH 2Turnover by nationality

Source: Savills Research. Data is accurate to the end of November 2015

■ It is apparent that the Asian and US purchasers are targeting the larger lot sizes, as their average lot size this year has been £138m and £113m respectively. Whereas, the UK funds average lot size for purchase is £45m.

■ Taiwanese investors have been particularly active in 2015, growing to hold a 28% share of all Asian investment into the City and 21% over Central London. Despite the changing forecast in China, mainland Chinese investment into Central London currently represents 11% of total turnover, in line with 2014 (11%) and ahead of 2013 (6%).

■ IPD average equivalent yield was 5.6% at the end of October, down from 6.1% at this point last year. Furthermore, Savills prime yield remains at 4%, which is an all time record low. Furthermore, the spread between the City and the West End remains at 100bps with the West End prime yield at 3% (Graph 3).

Graph 3

GRAPH 3Central London prime yields

Source: Savills Research

Table 1

TABLE 1Key deals in Q4 2015

Source: Savills Research