■ Right to Buy and high value council homes sales. Our analysis indicates that at least 24,000 new households per annum could exercise the Right to Buy. Full compensation to housing associations for the discount would cost circa £1.5 billion per year. Viable replacement is only likely to be possible with shared ownership units in most areas. This will lead to a depletion in the stock of sub-market rented homes.
■ A clear role for sub-market housing. Reduced development of sub-market rental housing will leave a gap of at least 70,000 potential new households each year being unable to access the housing market. That’s 350,000 over the term of a parliament. This shows a clear and continuing role for sub-market housing.
■ Capacity for cross-subsidy. In order to provide sub-market housing, cross-subsidy from development for market sale will be required. In some areas it will be needed at substantial levels to put the new homes within reach of those in housing need.
■ Market risk. Housing associations will need to make best use of their competitive advantages in the market and be aware of both cyclical risks and limits to market absorption.