London’s housing need

London’s population is growing rapidly. Following decades of post war decline, the city’s population began to grow in the 1980s and surpassed its 1939 historic peak, of 8.6 million people, in early 2015. The Greater London Authority’s (GLA) central projection is for London’s population to reach 11.3 million in 2050¹.

To accommodate this growth, London’s housebuilding target set in the London Plan – the Mayor’s spatial development plan for the capital – has been increased to a minimum of 42,000 new homes a year with the plan requiring boroughs to identify additional capacity to hit 49,000 homes a year. While this is a step in the right direction, it is still not enough. The GLA’s London Strategic Housing Market Assessment (SHMA)² indicates that London, depending on the timeframe used, will require between approximately 49,000 (2015-2036) and 62,000 (2015-2026) more homes a year. Actual housebuilding remains well below the new target. Savills estimates that 28,000 new homes were built in London in 2014 and forecasts an average of 32,000 new homes will be built over the next five years.

^{Source: Savills analysis; Molior data; London SHMA}

Home Truths

In 2014, London First published Home Truths³ which called for a bold approach to increasing housebuilding in London. The report made 12 recommendations including:

• • using new transport infrastructure as a catalyst to unlock more housing development;
  • introducing a ‘Domesday Book’ for surplus public land in London to register and coordinate the release of this land for housing;
  • giving London’s boroughs a real financial incentive to help them accommodate new homes and, where boroughs consistently fail to meet their housebuilding target, giving the Mayor discretionary power to step in and determine a greater number of applications for residential development; and
  • providing more support to boroughs that want to start building again by abolishing restrictions on local authorities’ borrowing against the value of their housing stock, where this would be within prudential rules.

Home Truths makes clear there is no simple solution to London’s lack of housebuilding – increasing supply requires action on multiple fronts. The main focus of this Redefining Density report is exploring how London can make better use of the land within its boundary to build more well-designed and high-quality new homes.

Making better use of land

In the London Plan 2015⁴, policies have been amended to give more support to town centres, opportunity and intensification areas, and other large sites being used as locations to deliver more new homes. The Plan also encourages boroughs to exceed their share of the annual 42,000 housebuilding target through better use of land, particularly in areas which are well connected by public transport.

Part of using land better is about supporting higher density development in appropriate areas. Housing density – the number of homes in a defined area – can be an emotive subject, with local communities sometimes seeing higher density as a synonym for low quality, poorly designed flats which might place a strain on local facilities. This view is understandable. Mistakes have been made in the past but equally lessons have now been learned. This report makes the case that housing density should be viewed simply as a means to an end – using land better to deliver more and better homes – not as an end itself; and that higher density development can, and must be, of high-quality, while supporting the delivery of better local services.

Defining Density looks at how density is measured, followed by How London Compares, which compares London’s density to other international cities. The Importance Of Design highlights how high-quality design is integral to making better use of London’s land and Planning Policy considers how planning policy in London should evolve to support this aim. Finally, The Opportunity reflects on the scale of the opportunity for London to make the best use of its land and the ways this can be delivered.

<sup>1. London Infrastructure Plan 2050: A consultation, Greater London Authority: July 2014.
2. The London Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013, Greater London Authority: January 2014. This SHMA is part of the evidence base for the London Plan.
3. Home Truths: 12 Steps to Solving London’s Housing Crisis, London First: March 2014.
4. The Further Alterations to the London Plan were published in March 2015.</sup>