■ More planning consents in high demand areas. Our analysis shows the rate of new planning consents is not keeping up with the rate of housebuilding in the strongest markets in and around London and in the strongest employment markets around the country. In many parts of the South East and the east of England, the number of planning consents are falling well below objectively assessed need.
■ Continued support for housebuilders to increase market capacity. We estimate the private sector has the potential to deliver 150,000 new homes starts a year in England in 2020. Our projection is based on larger housebuilders pursuing controlled growth averaging 6% per annum during the next five years, similar growth among refinanced medium-sized builders and steady output from smaller house builders bolstered by the custom build and self-build sectors. This level of growth also requires continuation of demand side support such as Help to Buy beyond 2020 to prevent starts tailing off at around 2018 and a higher number of planning consents in strong markets where sales rates can increase.
■ Additional building from housing associations, local authorities and large scale build to rent operators. We are also projecting the potential for 55,000 more starts in England from housing associations, local authorities and large scale build to rent operators. The scale of this additional building is conditional on increased construction capacity (more skilled labour and materials) and more land with planning consent in the right places.
■ Increased supply of land to prevent steep rise in land values. The additional potential demand for land that we are projecting will inevitably lead to higher land values, a squeeze on margins and a choking off of volume growth, unless there is a significant increase in the volume of land that is made available for development in the right places.