■ South west London boroughs have seen house prices increase by between 14% and 21% over the past year, with the outer boroughs showing signs of catching up with the previously stronger performing prime boroughs. Over the next five years affordability will be the key constraint to growth. We expect interest rates to start rising in 2016 alongside the changes implemented from the Mortgage Market Review, and additional stress testing requirements from the Bank of England, all of which will affect the mainstream areas hardest.
■ Prime London: Our index shows relatively stable growth of 2.6% over the past year, and we expect a quieter market in the lead up to the election with a pick up in transactions thereafter as pent up demand returns to the market. Over the five years to 2019, we are forecasting growth of 22.7%.
■ Future connections: Additional transport and infrastructure improvements are integral to seeing value uplift. In prime areas such as Nine Elms and Vauxhall, the Northern Line extension is the crucial component to unlocking development, due to open by 2020. Longer term, Crossrail 2 could be the catalyst required to stimulate and accelerate delivery of mainstream housing in areas such as Wimbledon and Tooting Broadway.
■ Demand for land: Smaller sites play an important part in delivering the 50,000 homes that London needs each year, especially in the lower value outer south west London boroughs. We expect this trend to continue with more land being brought forward, encouraged by catalysts such as Crossrail 2.