Publication

Market in Minutes: Prime Rental Markets in the Commuter Belt - Q1 2015

Needs based tenants dominate demand in commuter belt locations.

In what has become an increasingly seasonal market, prime housing in London’s commuter belt saw rental growth of 0.7% in the first quarter of 2015. However, this followed a modest fall in rental values in the last quarter of last year, essentially repeating a pattern seen in each of the three past years.

Subdued growth

Generally, this means annual rental growth across this market remains subdued at 1.6%, with rents still on average 1.5% below their peak of the second quarter of 2008.

Over this period, by far the strongest market has been the three and four bedroom market in affluent suburbs such as Esher, Weybridge and Northwood, where rents are 13.5% and 11.7% above their high point some seven years ago.

By comparison much larger houses have seen less than half the level of net house price growth in the same period with, in particular, a thinner seam of demand from North American tenants compared to previous years.

Further into the commuter belt, rents for properties of five bedrooms or more remain more than 6.0% below their 2008 peak, with rents continuing to fall marginally over the past year. By contrast rental values of three bedroom prime properties have recovered fully.

 

Table 1

TABLE 1Prime rental movements to Q1 2015

Divisions in the market

This reflects a wider division in the market between needs based renters looking for small or medium sized housing in an urban environment and 'big budget tenants' looking for trophy properties, who remain relatively scarce.

Accordingly the market is dominated by affluent young couples unable or not looking to buy and families new to the area. This latter group tends to comprise those relocating for work reasons or moving for lifestyle reasons and renting before committing to a purchase.

Demand from the latter group has tended to favour towns with good schools, such as Harpenden, Winchester and Cambridge, while being more reluctant to rent in surrounding villages. As such, the emergence of prime urban markets has been a common feature across both the sales and rental market.

Outlook

Looking forward, we expect the preference for prime family housing in the suburbs and key commuter towns to continue, particularly as we see a more meaningful increase in those following the traditional relocation routes out of London.

Once the uncertainty resulting from a general election year subsides, this is likely to create additional demand in both the sales and lettings markets, while also potentially reducing levels of supply of rental stock from accidental Landlords.

Across the prime commuter belt markets as a whole we expect rents to rise by 15.9% over the course of the next five years.

 

READ OUR MARKET IN MINUTES: PRIME LONDON RENTAL MARKETS - Q1 2015