The Education Equation

Words by Lucian Cook | @LucianCook

Good schools in good locations continue to attract buyers moving out of London

 

One of the key catalysts that drives housing demand out of London is the desire to buy a larger family home in an area that offers good schooling. Making that move often occurs in anticipation of a child starting school or moving up to secondary school.

Moving out of London

In London, the pressure on schools is intense. A good state school education is not guaranteed. Of those applying to state secondary school, 30% do not get into their first choice in the capital. In the prime boroughs of Wandsworth and Hammersmith & Fulham this figure rises to 40%.

The cost of a private education in London is high. In addition to school fees, the average house price in the postcode districts in which London’s independent schools are located is just shy of £760,000.

Increasingly among the more affluent families, the ability to exploit the price differential between London and the country provides an opportunity to free up cash in order to facilitate a private education for their children. There is little doubt that this is the least risky option, with over half of all top performing schools at A-level being in the independent sector.

 

GRAPH 1

Perfomance at A-Level | Independent Schools are top of the class

 
Perfomance at A-Level | Independent Schools are top of the class

Source: Savills Research using Department of Education

 

Grammar schools

By contrast, the most cost efficient option is to tap into high performing state schools, without school fees to worry about. In England, for many the golden ticket is to be able to get their children into one of the 164 grammar schools, where there is no consistent house price premium above the local authority. Within the state sector they account for over half of the top 10% of best performing schools (measure by reference to GCSE results). 128 of them make up 84% of the top 5% of state secondary schools.

In particular, this drives demand into Kent and Buckinghamshire which, together with the much less expensive Lincolnshire, have the most extensive grammar school networks.

Getting your child into these schools remains highly competitive. There are around 23,000 grammar school students in each GCSE year roughly half the number in independent schools and under 4% of the total secondary school population. Similarly, while this may be an option if you live in Trafford, Birmingham or on the Wirral, such schools are few and far between in other parts of the country.

Though there are exceptions to the rule, elsewhere within the state school system the top performing schools tend to be located in more affluent areas that command higher house prices. As shown in Graph 1, prices in the postcode sector of the best performing non-selective state schools are 25% above regional average, and 14% higher than the local education authority in which they sit, lending credibility to the house price premium those living in relevant school catchment areas so often refer to.

Educational hotspots

For many, rather than pinning their hopes on a single school, a choice of good schools will determine where families will look to buy.

In locations such as Northwood, Brighton, Shrewsbury and Ascot such demand will be driven entirely by a cluster of high performing independent schools. In others, such as Dorking, Malvern, Borehamwood, Warwick, Oxford and Guildford, these will be supplemented by one or two high performing state school alternatives.

In areas, such as Wallington, Altrincham and Orpington it might be exclusively a function of the grammar school system. In others, such as Bath, Winchester, York, Colchester, Tunbridge Wells, Chelmsford and Cambridge, the network of a range of high performing schools underpins a high value family housing market.

 

GRAPH 2

House price v secondary school performance

 
House price v secondary school performance

Source: Savills Research using Land Registry and Department of Education

 

MAP 1

Interactive Map | Schools & House Prices

 

Scottish Independents - Scotland's independent schools command a premium

There are 70 independent schools in Scotland, following either the Scottish or English curriculum and educating around 4% of pupils in Scotland. Pupil numbers in Scotland’s independent schools are continuing to hold steady despite the increased pressure on family budgets.

The majority of independent schools are located in and around the core locations of Edinburgh, Glasgow, Perth and Aberdeen. In fact, Edinburgh has more such schools per head of the population than any other city in the UK, with no less than 20 servicing a population of around 500,000. One in four of all secondary school age children attend an independent school in Edinburgh.

Unsurprisingly, two-thirds of independent schools are located in postcode sectors where the average property price exceeds the average for their respective local authority area. The premium across all areas during 2014 averaged 34%, increasing to 60% in the hotspots of Edinburgh and Glasgow.

The gap in residential property values is not just confined to independent school locations. Property prices during 2014 in postcode sectors where Scotland’s top 20 state secondary schools are located were on average 25% higher compared to their respective Local Authority areas. A number of such schools are located in Scotland’s commuter hotspots of East Lothian, East Renfrewshire and East Dunbartonshire.

 

News article

George Heriot’s School, Edinburgh

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