Research article

Where will the homes go?

Development first requires land. We have identified known private sites, public assets and concentrations of non-domestic land uses.

Availability of land for development is a prerequisite for increasing and accelerating housing delivery. Where sites exist or could potentially come forward, catalysts such as infrastructure improvements and political intervention can act to bring forward more new homes.

As we have explained on the previous page, by looking at the places where site potential converges with a raft of other catalysts, we have identified 21 development hotspots. Here we take a closer look at the spread of sites which underpin our analysis.

Identified sites

Savills has identified the supply of land for new housing and reviewed when the land is likely to come forward for development. We have taken a view on the likelihood of sales on each site during the next five years, with phasing in line with market capacity.

Map 1 shows the projected concentrations of supply coming forward over the next five years. The darker the shade of red, the higher the volume of private homes expected to be sold in the next five years. We have therefore highlighted existing hotspots of delivery that include: Royal Docks, Greenwich Peninsula, Canary Wharf, Nine Elms, Colindale and Wembley.

However, there is potential for more. We have also considered many more sites which are not currently coming forward in the next five years but which could be accelerated with the catalysts we have discussed, such as the confirmation of Crossrail 2.

Constraints to delivery of these sites include the complexity and speed of the planning process, the need for vacant possession, site viability, market capacity, (especially for big sites running beyond the five year period), and the assembly of funding.

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Map 1

Public land

Using some public land for housing could be a major component of accelerating housing delivery and reaching the London Plan target of building at least 42,000 homes a year.

Sites drawn from a combination of assets belonging to the GLA, Central Government Estate, NHS and Local Authorities could significantly boost housing delivery. Map 2 shows GLA holdings already earmarked for disposal.

However, funding worth £1 million for a new London Land Commission to help create a record of surplus public sector land in London will be key to identifying additional new sites.

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Map 2

Land in other use

Changes in employment patterns means that there are now a number of employment sites in London which may be under-utilised.

Map 2 also highlights in blue the areas where a high proportion of land is used for non-domestic purposes.

In locations where development is being triggered by the catalysts we have discussed, employment sites which are under-utilised could be appropriate for residential development, boosting delivery.

 

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