Research article

The mainstream market in Scotland

Mainstream will outperform rest of UK and also prime Scotland, due to LBTT changes and improved lending in a growing economy.

Mainstream market

Gentle economic recovery, falling unemployment and improving mortgage market conditions are helping to underpin the mainstream residential property sector in Scotland. The market cooled in the last quarter of 2014, following the introduction of the nationwide Mortgage Market Review.

There was also a slowdown in deals in the immediate run-up to the Independence Referendum in September. However, the latest figures show a 12% annual rise in residential transactions, up from 84,065 in 2013 to 93,875 in 2014 – the busiest market since 2008.

“There are signs that conditions in the mainstream market are recovering”

Around two-thirds of transactions in Scotland are mortgage dependent and the 18% annual increase in Scottish lending has boosted the mainstream market. The Government’s Help to Buy schemes assisted in 6,629 sales across Scotland between October 2013 and September 2014, providing much needed support to the new build and first-time buyer market.

The core locations of Aberdeen, Edinburgh, East Renfrewshire and East Dunbartonshire have led the Scottish residential property market for the last 10 years and continue to do so. However, 2014 will be best remembered as the year when market strength spilled out from the hubs into secondary and commuter locations. Moray saw an annual increase in transactions of 24% last year; West Lothian 22% and South Lanarkshire 20%, all helped by attainable house prices and new build developments.

There are signs conditions in the mainstream market are recovering, with an increase in new buyer enquiries and instructions across Scotland during the month of January this year, according to the latest RICS Residential Market Survey. A slight monthly rise in mortgage approvals across the UK during December, the recent stamp duty reforms, and the initial effects of lower oil prices on UK inflation, should help improve activity levels.

 

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