Though it will take time for the effect of the stamp duty changes introduced in the Autumn Statement to become clear, early signs are that in the market above £1m the additional cost is predominantly being borne by sellers through small price adjustments similar to the amount of extra stamp duty now due.

This being the case, the early indications are that where stock is priced to reflect these circumstances, the market continues to function with a healthy level of buyer interest and transactions. As things stand, we are forecasting that prices will rise by 1.0% in 2015 if there are no further tax changes.

There is every prospect of greater price growth in the market below £1m, though a more regulated mortgage environment will act as a constraint 
on the extent of this growth.

"We are forecasting that prices will rise by 1.0% in 2015 if there are no further tax changes"

The market at this level is likely to be highly dependent on general buyer sentiment and, correspondingly, the strength of the economic recovery, the performance of the mainstream housing market and the timing of any interest rate rises.

Overall, this means committed 
sellers will need to be realistic 
on prices, but that there could be 
a buying opportunity for those who 
are prepared to take a long term view on the prime housing market.

Over five years we are forecasting average growth of 24% in the prime regional market assuming no further increases in the taxation of high value homes.

By increasing the rate of stamp duty on high value properties, the Autumn Statement significantly undermines the case for a so-called mansion tax, but its introduction remains Labour party policy. The potential charges at the lower end of the price spectrum would not be significant, with Labour suggesting an annual charge of just £3,000 for properties worth between £2m and £3m. However, it would be more onerous in higher price bands, if the target revenue of £1.2bn per annum were to be raised.

Taken from
Market in Minutes: Prime Regional Residential Markets - Jan 2015