Research article

The outlook for the logistics sector

The surge in take-up has increased investor and developer confidence, but speculative development will not flood the market.

■ The increase in take-up has seen supply levels fall drastically. Whilst this has resulted in some speculative development in core markets, in most cases supply levels remain below long-term take-up averages.

■ More speculative development will be announced in 2015, but we expect this to be in core markets and to be delivered in a very considered manner depending on localised market conditions.

■ These market drivers are finally starting to show sustained rental growth in the IPD indices. We expect this trend to continue throughout 2015 as landlords hold firm for increases in headline rents.

■ Whilst there remains room for further yield compression we do not expect to see a further 75bps inward movement this year. Total returns will fall however, with genuine rental growth emerging in key markets we forecast returns for the sector this year to be 12% - 15%.

 

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