Research article

Scottish Referendum result

The decision of the Scottish electorate to 
remain part of the United Kingdom will boost consumer confidence in the property market.

The Scottish electorate has made its decision on the historic Referendum, held on 18 September 2014, and voted ‘No’ to the question ‘Should Scotland be an independent country? With 55% of the vote, the public has decided that Scotland should remain as part of the United Kingdom.

While there will be ongoing negotiations between Holyrood and Westminster, with regard to further devolution, the result meant we now have a more certain environment for the property market to function. The question over whether Scotland will become independent has been a feature of the Scottish real estate market, and has suppressed consumer confidence. The Scottish market, driven by buyers from Scotland, the south and overseas, is now poised for further meaningful growth.

Many buyers and sellers had been taking a cautious approach in the run up to the Referendum. However, we now anticipate an increase in the number of higher value houses coming to the market, as well as a boost to the entire market. We expect the Scottish prime and mainstream residential values to grow by 23% and 19% respectively by 2018. Prime market values are now set to grow in line with the rest of the UK (see Table 1).

The debate has held back the market, particularly reducing the number of buyers from south of the border moving north. We now anticipate the return of London super-commuters, attracted by the comparative good value on offer in Scotland.

Click Table 1 below to enlarge

Table1

 

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