Research article

Scottish independence referendum impact

We expect current uncertainty to continue in the event of a decisive 'Yes' vote, whereas a decisive ‘No’ vote will lead to further consumer confidence.

The outcome of the Scottish Independence Referendum is unlikely to impact on purchasing decisions for those intending to remain in Scotland or buyers with strong Scottish connections. However, 
until the close of the spring market, there had been a significant increase in the number of people from London looking to take advantage of the record gap between house prices in London and Scotland. However, as the Referendum date draws nearer, we are beginning to notice a lack of commitment from such buyers with purchasing decisions being put on hold until after 18 September.

In the event of a decisive ‘No’ vote at the Referendum this September, we anticipate the end of current uncertainty boosting consumer confidence in the housing market. We predict Scottish prime values potentially rising by 2% at the end 
of this year, with five year growth up to 2018, matching UK Prime Regional growth as a whole. In the event of a decisive ‘Yes’ vote we expect the current uncertainty to continue, particularly in relation to tax and currency issues, restricting significant price growth for a number of years.

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Table 2

 

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