Research article

Ready for the ripple effect

Commuters moving out from London are attracted by the value for money and space on offer.

Developments in Surrey range from mainstream to prime, so we should consider both ends of the price spectrum when looking at the forecasts for the next five years. Although it is not possible to make direct predictions on how new build prices will behave, it is broadly likely that they will follow a similar trend to the general market.

Property prices in Surrey have already passed their previous (2007-08) peak, but the gap between them and values in London is still very large, so further growth is expected in the short term. The forecast for mainstream property expects price growth of 31.9% in the South East for the five years up to the end of 2018.

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Graph 2

Towards the north of the county, the nature of the markets is such that new developments would often be classed as prime property, therefore we can turn to the Savills prime market forecasts to assess potential growth prospects. Esher and Cobham are included within the 'Suburbs' group, with growth of 26.3% forecast for the five years up to the end of 2018.

Further south, Guildford and Reigate are classed as 'Inner Commute' locations, where growth of 25.1% is forecast over the same period. These figures outstrip the equivalent for central London, reinforcing the message the ripple effect is expected to lead to stronger growth outside London compared with inside.

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Table 1

 

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