All three main political parties agree that we are experiencing a major housing shortage and that the rate of housebuilding needs to increase. Within this debate, the creation of new Garden Cities is often cited as one way to increase the numbers, particularly in the South East where the problem is greatest.

Strong price rises in London, which suffers an acute imbalance between the supply and demand for homes, has priced out large numbers of households. Many will leave the capital in search of better value, placing added pressure in the property markets with the strongest migration links to London.

There is no single solution to this housing crisis. Savills believes that the creation of new Garden Cities, as defined by the Government’s prospectus launched this spring, is not a panacea but a piece in a much bigger jigsaw. It is within this context that we examine the need for large scale developments, consider the best locations for new settlements and look at some of the factors affecting the viability of such schemes.

Housing shortfall

Last year we built just 112,630 homes in England. That is less than half the numbers needed and 34% below what we were building in 2007-08. Yet low building rates are not the only problem.

In Planning: Countdown to the Election, published earlier this year, we revealed that many Local Authorities are failing to plan adequately for housing need in the first place. Our study of southern England showed that even if all Local Authorities (LPAs) met their local plan targets, the region would still face a shortfall of more than 160,000 homes over the next five years. That is before we take into account the backlog in demand resulting from years of undersupply.

London, the South East and the East will suffer 80% of that shortfall, a total of 129,000 homes over the next five years according to our analysis, which compared the number of homes planned for by LPAs with household projections for Town and Country Planning Association (TCPA).

By the same measure, London alone will be short of 72,000 homes over the next five years. High quality new settlements, built along existing public transport links to major cities or where there are real plans in place for its provision, would relieve some of the pressure.

Back to the future

Garden Cities are not a new idea. The New Towns Act of 1946 launched a programme through which Britain built 32 new towns over the twentieth century and, according to the TCPA, these currently provide homes for 2.5 million people. Welwyn Garden City and Letchworth are thriving examples.

The Eco Towns championed by the previous Government were another, if less successful, version of the concept. Labour’s aim was to build zero-carbon, largely car free, self contained small towns of up to 20,000 homes. However, of the four winning bids announced in 2009, only North West Bicester is still planned to be built to the standards that were originally proposed.

Defining Garden Cities

In contrast with previous “new settlements” where the concept originated with and was driven by a central body, the Government’s prospectus for Locally-led Garden Cities published in April 2014 states that the next generation of Garden Cities are to be instigated and supported by Local Authorities.

The document offers no detailed definition of what constitutes a Garden City, but invites localities to consider the view of the TCPA, that they should be “holistically planned new settlements which enhance the natural environment, tackle climate change and provide high quality affordable housing and locally accessible jobs in beautiful, healthy and sociable communities”.

Beyond that, the Government expects these new towns to comprise some 15,000 homes with access to existing or planned transport infrastructure. It prescribes no particular mode for delivery but suggests arrangements such as joint venture companies or statutory bodies such as Development Corporations, as proposed for Ebbsfleet in Kent.

Breaking ground

The Savills development database identifies several large developments being openly promoted or currently going through the planning system. These include a MOD site for 10,000 homes in Waterbeach, north east of Cambridge; 9,500 homes in Northstowe, north west of Cambridge; and outline planning permission for 6,200 new homes at Rugby Radio Station, north of Rugby. New Garden Cities should complement these existing sources, not replace them. Extending existing towns and cities must therefore remain part of the wider strategy for meeting housing need.

However, creating completely new settlements is not just about housing numbers. Building Garden Cities allows for the delivery of new housing on a large scale while integrating green spaces, amenities, employment options and public services into the design from the start. It also provides an alternative to placing greater pressure on infrastructure and services in existing towns and villages. However, the cost of building an entirely new infrastructure to support a new Garden City is an important challenge to their delivery.

Government identifies site in Kent as a suitable location

Ebbsfleet has been identified by the Government as a Garden City, with some 15,000 homes planned around the station that offers links to London St Pancras in less than 20 minutes via High Speed 1. With targets at these levels, we would need to build a ‘new Ebbsfleet’ every year just to accommodate London’s overspill.

Proposals from London Paramount to create the UK’s largest leisure resort in the adjoining Swanscombe Peninsula would provide employment and enhance the city’s profile.

Directly across the Thames to the north lies the new settlement of Chafford Hundred, where over 5,000 homes were delivered around the turn of the century.

Additional development around this area may be possible as it is not designated as Green Belt. Existing property values are low given the proximity to London.

Taken from
Spotlight: Garden Cities - June 2014