Research article

The future of Monaco's residential market

Demand from a growing base of global UHNWIs will drive price growth.

• As one of the world’s most expensive and exclusive ultra prime residential districts, Monaco’s market area, restricted by geography, will continue to find demand outstrips supply and values will be pushed to new world highs.

• As world city real estate markets cool somewhat, Monaco will continue to benefit from its additional status as a destination and recreation centre. These real estate markets are recovering later than cities at a global level but are set to show strong growth in this and coming years.

• In order for Monaco to continue to 
hold its appeal as a destination for the global elite, the Principality will continue to build into the water on reclaimed land, and skywards. New product will be offered comparable to that found in the very best addresses in London, New York and 
Hong Kong.

• Monaco is one of the few places in the world that shares characteristics of both a world city centre of commerce and top tier ‘recreation destination’; a city and playground all rolled into one. Few other locations can offer such broad appeal, 
and this will help to see the Principality through market cycles as investment in cities slows, but investment in recreation hotspots rises.

• We foresee continued price appreciation in Monaco’s residential markets due to demand from a growing base of global UHNWIs, set against restricted levels of new supply. Prices are still up to 20% below their former peak and we foresee they will return to peak in the next 12 months. This implies growth of around 20% before 2015. Therefore, value growth could still be in double digits for another two to three years.

• Downside risks include any wider interference in Monaco’s tax regime. The Principality has already signed a number of tax information exchange agreements in accordance with the OECD, and has a reputation as a cooperative regime. While low tax jurisdictions remain firmly on the watch of a number of major national governments as they seek to minimise 
tax-flows from home, we do not foresee 
significant changes to Monaco’s status in the medium term.

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