In 2013 the controversial Help to Buy policy was introduced by the Government. In the blink of an eye the market returned to life. Transactions rose and the recovery in house prices that had hitherto been focused on London, became more widespread.

This article considered whether these events were interrelated or just a coincidence. It also suggested a range of possible outcomes dependent on the rate of house price growth and potential increases in interest rates.

Interview with Lucian Cook

Key facts:

Job title: Director

Specialisation: UK Prime & Mainstream Residential Market

Years at Savills: 20

About Lucian: From 1993 to early 2007 I was a rural practice land agent, who didn’t quite fit the mould. More complex valuations, strategic property reviews and spreadsheets than hunting, shooting and fishing, it was only a matter of time before I got the calling to research.

Q Why has Help to Buy been so controversial?

A Critics lined up to pan the scheme, often misunderstanding its scope. Meanwhile the Government made it a flagship policy. In doing so they have been trying to keep alive the aspiration of home ownership, despite a fundamental shift towards private renting.

Q What distinguished Savills analysis of the market?

A An acknowledgement that house prices are not the only variable in the model and that the market does not always act rationally, with a range of potential outcomes.

Q What of the future?

A The housing market will continue to evolve. High house price to household income ratios and greater mortgage regulation will continue to put pressure on mortgaged owner occupation. All indications are that prices have less growth capacity than in the 90s.

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Taken from
25 Years of Savills Residential Research (1989 - 2014)