Research article

Growth in the UK's prime regional markets

Sentiment in buyers continues to improve as price growth returns to the prime regional residential market.

Market in Minutes Prime Regional Residential Markets looks at the growth recorded across all prime regional markets. Download here.

For the first time in two and a half years, positive growth was recorded across all the prime regional residential markets in England during the third quarter of 2013. Drilling down into the different geographical zones, growth occurred across all regions apart from Scotland, where values fell albeit by just -0.1%.

However, there has been a significant difference between the extent of the recovery inside and outside of the commuter zone, with prices of prime property beyond the commuter zone typically still some way below their 2007 peak.

Since the credit crunch there has been an identifiable trend amongst buyers towards prime urban property. Combined with the effect of increased stamp duty, that has suppressed demand above £2 million, this means the values of prime terraced urban houses are within 0.9% of their 2007 peak, whilst larger Manor House values remain -16.6% below their 2007 levels.

The geographical differences in performance mean the variation in average values across the country has widened. Though subject to wide variability, average prime suburban values are now £450 per square foot (1.2% above peak) while values in the Midlands and the North remain -23.9% below peak, at less than half of this figure (£210 per square foot).

Some of the highest values are within the prime suburban markets of Surrey, which have benefitted from a flow of wealth down the A3 wealth corridor and the strong performance of large properties on private estates that have an international buyer profile. As a result average prime values in Esher are £520 per square foot.

Factors such as the frequency of trains to London, local employment opportunities, the quality of the housing stock and the availability of recreational and cultural facilities all influence values across these zones. When combined with good schools, they can have a dramatic effect.

A good example is Oxford, where average values in north Oxford are around £520 per square foot, but an area of larger houses (£2 million plus) just north of the city centre and south of Summertown command average values of over £800 per square foot with the very best at the £1,000 mark.

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Focus on schools

Analysing data provided by The Good Schools Guide and local house price data it is clear the effect of a good school is still a major driver of local housing markets. The average premium paid for a family home within a reasonable distance of one of the top performing schools compared to the county average is currently 30.3%.

However, it is the top performing fee paying junior school, which has the most influence on local house prices. Houses near these schools can command a premium of more than 50%.

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Looking forward

Though not startling, the return to price growth has been consistent across most of the prime markets. This marks an important turning point in the market, with an expectation that prices will increase by 20% across the prime regional markets over the period from 2013-17.

While sentiment among buyers has undoubtedly already improved, this should not detract from the fact that sellers need to remain realistic on pricing. Buyers will be aware that the small increases recorded for the prime regional markets are below those currently being reported for the mainstream market.