Within Canary Wharf, available new build stock is confined to the remnants of completed schemes, such as Streamlight and Pan Peninsula. Molior estimates there are just 60 unsold private units within such schemes and no schemes of more than 50 units under construction. Here the development pipeline has stalled.
There are over 2,000 private units in schemes with full planning consent where development is yet to start. Of these just under 1,700 units are within five large capital-intensive schemes that have proved difficult to fund in current lending market conditions. This pipeline is supported by a further 1,350 private units in 50+ unit schemes where consent is obtained subject to reserved matters including S106 planning obligations.
By contrast, in the north of Canary Wharf there are some 660 private units available to the market in four large schemes currently in the construction phase. Aimed at the upper end of the mainstream market, though much lower value, what separates these lower density schemes is the ability to phase them and leave less borrowed capital outstanding during the development process.
The stalled development pipeline of prime property in the area has the potential to constrain supply of new stock into the Canary Wharf market for a period of at least two years, and this is likely to underpin medium-term price growth. The timing of that growth will be dependent on the depth and nature of demand.
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