Cardiff
Similar to the position back in the early 1990s just prior to the adoption of the local plan, Cardiff now finds itself with an apparent shortage of readily developable land for family housing as it awaits progress on its Local Development Plan.
Whilst there is a large stock of approved planning permissions, as well as some yet to come through the system which are awaiting the signing of legal agreements, a large number of these sites or phases are not deliverable as they hold consents for flats and are not suitable for current market demand.
The rise in supply since 2000 was due to a number of substantial releases, including a large number of high-density Cardiff Bay and City Centre units and the redevelopment of former hospital sites. Since 2007 however, the change in the economic climate as well as the lack of an up to date development plan, through which further releases of appropriate sites would have been expected, has played a part in the recent falling away in the land supply position.
Average values have fallen in Cardiff due to an oversupply of
flatted accommodation. Values of family housing particularly in the hotspots north of Cardiff have been less affected by the recent economic downturn.
High density flatted developments have been particularly affected by the change in market conditions. As a result housing densities are continuing to reduce due to the shift in demand for flats to houses
Swansea
Despite the impact of recessionary forces an average of 830 new dwellings were completed across Swansea during 2008 and 2009, an increase of 19% above the 10 year historic average.
Part of the explanation for this apparent paradox continues to lie in the fact that many of the completions were located in large block schemes, on which construction had started prior to the global financial crisis, leaving developers with little real option other than to continue through to completion.
Given the focus of recent development activity within the city centre, Maritime Quarter and The Welsh Assembly’s £200 million flagship waterfront project SA1, apartments have predominated accounting for over 75% of delivered units. Around a third of the 1,500 new residential dwellings at SA1 have been completed, but the start of construction work on some other private sector development proposals on the 38 hectares of land around the Prince of Wales Dock have been put on hold, although smaller exclusive housing only schemes within SA1 are outperforming.
Looking ahead, and bearing in mind the difficulties being encountered in obtaining finance by both developers and purchasers alike, a further slowdown in starts is anticipated; through a continuing reduction in the number of new schemes coming forward, and the submission by developers for the re-planning of previously approved high density housing schemes and layouts.
Newport and Bridgend
Unlike Cardiff and Swansea, Newport and Bridgend have not
had the strength of demand to be regenerated by large-scale flatted developments.
The effects of the recession locally in both Newport and Bridgend had been slower to materialise, with completions in 2008 and 2009 slightly below the 10-year historic average.
Completions in 2010 and 2011 have now decreased as demand
for family housing and apartment schemes in these more
traditional manufacturing towns has contracted as affordability becomes constrained.
Anticipated progress on many sites, including Newport Unlimited’s
£2 billion ‘gateway to Wales’ regeneration scheme, have been put back due to the lack of cross subsidy from the residential, mostly flatted element.
Despite being a University quarter, Newport’s residential market is not underpinned by a strong rental demand. Newport has however selected Queensberry Real Estate as the development partner to deliver the new 390,000 sq. ft. shopping centre in the heart of the city centre, which will boost regeneration prospects.
Bridgend has traditionally relied upon large peripheral allocations at Brackla, Broadlands and now Parc Derwen. The choice of new homes is limited to estate type development, with little differentiation of product.
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