Notwithstanding, what is missing from Ireland’s housing debate is the international context within which it is occurring. Casting our eyes outward, one realises that housing shortages are not a home-grown issue, but the Achilles heel of governments the world over.
Take England for example. The government is targeting a housing output of 300,000 new units per year, but just 233,000 units were delivered in 2021/2. Other commentators put the housing need much higher, with the Centre for Cities more than doubling the annual requirement to a mammoth 654,000 homes over the next decade, equating to a staggering 6.5 million homes in total.
The situation in Germany is no different. The German Property Federation has said that the country is facing its worst housing crisis in twenty years, with the supply deficit expected to widen to 700,000 homes in the coming years.
Earlier this year, the German Housing Minister stated that the government’s new housing target of 400,000 per year would again be missed in 2023, with just 245,000 units forecast, down from 280,000 last year.
One of Germany’s largest builders, Vonovia, has stopped new construction projects in 2023, citing viability gaps as a result of higher inflation and rising interest rates. They also say that around 40pc of their housing costs are linked to government-imposed regulations, noting that easing these would significantly help viability.
In the Netherlands, more than half of young people report feelings of anger, sadness and stress as a result of the country’s housing crisis a recent survey by insurer Aegon found. Last year, consultancy Capital Value said that the pressure on the housing system was unprecedented, forecasting a housing shortage of 316,000 homes by 2024. In response, the Dutch government widened rental cap measures, but these are expected to further exacerbate the situation.
Peter Beolhouwer, Professor of Housing Systems at Delft University, stated that this may result in less construction and an exit of existing landlords, thus reducing supply further.
The theme of housing shortages is replicated across Europe. Data for the euro area shows that the number of building permits issued is running at less than half of the last cycle of 2007/8. Nor is the issue solely confined to Europe, with the United States having a shortfall of 1.5 million homes, according to the Moody Analytics.
Just last month, the IMF issued New Zealand with a list of required measures to tackle their housing crisis. The recommendations included the freeing up of land supply, improving planning processes, boosting infrastructural investment and reducing construction costs and delays, all measures that apply equally to Ireland
So housing shortages are an issue of common international frustration. Unfortunately, there just is no easy solution. For politicians, the takeaway lesson is that they must focus on implementing policies that have a strong evidence base internationally.
The issue is complex, and they must be prepared to grapple with the detail. Most of all, they must resist falling for tempting populist policies that promise short-term relief but deliver longer-term pain.
Finally, it is worth mentioning the impact of the persistent lack of supply on global house prices. Having risen by 130pc over the past decade, house prices in New Zealand have now fallen by 17.5pc in the 18 months.
In Europe, house prices have risen by 40pc compared to their previous peak of 2007/8, leaving significant room to fall. Ireland, however, only surpassed its previous peak of 2007/8 last year, largely thanks to the Central Bank of Ireland’s macroprudential measures. Introduced in 2015, these measures limit the capacity for over-borrowing and act as stabilisers to the market.
While derided in some corners, they have protected us from a repeat of the kind of property bubble witnessed in 2007/8. In this regard at least, the world may have a thing or two to learn from us on good policy outcomes.
John Ring is Director of Research at Savills Ireland