Today’s retail sales figures show a sharp rebound after a slowdown in the second half of 2016. On a seasonally adjusted basis core retail sales (excluding cars) rose by 6.1% in the year to January. This is the strongest growth rate seen since last May and bucks a trend of slower growth since last summer.

Commenting on the figures Director of Research at Savills, Dr. John McCartney said that the rebound was not unexpected given the stellar performance of the jobs market.

“While sentiment clearly went through a bit of a soft patch in the second half of last year – probably due to global and domestic political uncertainty - jobs growth continued to power ahead. Our analysis shows that employment is a much more powerful leading indicator of what actually happens in the retail sector than many of the commonly referenced measures such as sentiment and even incomes growth”

Total employment in Ireland grew by 3.3% last year and, based on Savills econometric analysis, there is an almost exact one-for-one relationship between jobs growth and retail rents growth 15 months later.